Ex-CNN Analyst Dampens Democrats’ Hopes for 2026 Senate Comeback
Chris Cillizza, a former political commentator for CNN, said Friday that despite the possibility of severe economic consequences from former President Donald Trump’s tariffs, Democrats still face a tough road in trying to flip the Senate in 2026.
Following Trump’s announcement of broad tariffs on Wednesday, markets dropped sharply on Thursday and Friday. During a livestream session, a viewer asked Cillizza if the economic risks — “the tariffs backfir[ing] as badly as some economists are saying they could” — might improve Democrats' odds of gaining control in the Senate.
Cillizza explained why that scenario remains far-fetched.
“They need to net four seats, okay, because JD Vance is the vice president, president of the Senate breaks ties, so you got to have a clear majority if you’re Democrats. You can have 51 seats. There are 22 Republican seats up to 13 Democratic seats. Of those 22, 21 of them are in states that Donald Trump won last November so it’s not a great playing field,” Cillizza said.
He pointed out that the only GOP seat in a state won by “[former Vice President] Kamala Harris” is Susan Collins’ in Maine, making her a major Democratic target.
“The only one that’s in a state [former Vice President] Kamala Harris won is in Maine, Susan Collins, and she’s going to be a huge target. So the problem becomes, it’s like you have to fish in waters that are not super friendly to your party,” he continued.
Cillizza offered North Carolina as a possible opportunity for Democrats.
“So like, one example, North Carolina. Thom Tillis is running. I could see that being a real race because I think Roy Cooper, the popular former Democratic governor, is probably going to run. So I think that that’s a race. It is a state Trump won, but that’s a real race,” he continued.
Still, even if Democrats are successful in a few key races, the road doesn’t get much easier.
“It starts to get dicier after that. Remember, they need four. So let’s assume they don’t lose any of their own, which, look, Georgia is going to be a big race for Democrats, so is Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire maybe, but Georgia and Michigan are going to be huge, huge races that they’d have to hold,” he said.
According to Cillizza, even victories in Maine and North Carolina may not be enough to deliver a majority.
“I guess the next one would be in Ohio, where John Husted is the appointed senator. Ohio’s a tough state — maybe. Okay, that’s three. Now you have to find me another winner out of this group,” he said. “I’m going to go in alphabetical order: Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, and Wyoming.”
“I mean, Iowa’s probably the best bet there, maybe Florida. It’s just the map is not great for them. It just isn’t for Democrats,” he concluded. “And so it’s like, could I think of a path? Sure, but man, you got to go through some pretty red states to get there.”
WATCH:
Cillizza also emphasized back in March that the Senate landscape in 2026 was going to be difficult for Democrats, a view only reinforced when Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire announced she would retire. Her exit followed similar retirement plans from Senators Gary Peters of Michigan and Tina Smith of Minnesota.
“Even if we don’t see another retirement in the Democratic side, these three retirements already, I think, have crushed the hopes of Democrats who wanted to try to win back the Senate in 2026,” he said at the time.
Another concern for Democrats is Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who may face a serious challenge in his reelection bid. After backing a bipartisan continuing resolution last month to keep the government funded through the fiscal year, some progressives within his party began calling for new leadership.
Among the most frequently mentioned alternatives: New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose name keeps popping up as a younger, more progressive figure to take the party forward.