Kamala Harris’ Lead Over Trump Being ‘Steadily Cut’: Poll
A leading pollster has disclosed that Vice President Kamala Harris's lead over former President Donald Trump in recent polls is “steadily cutting.”
A recent ActiVote survey, conducted from August 25 to September 2, shows Harris with a slim 1.6-point lead over Trump, holding 50.8 percent to his 49.2 percent. This margin falls within the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error.
In the previous ActiVote poll, conducted between August 15 and 23 among 1,000 potential voters, Harris led Trump by five points. However, that lead has since narrowed.
“Harris’ poll numbers improved steadily for about three-four weeks after Biden dropped out, followed by a period of two weeks where it hovered around a 5-point lead. In the past five days, that 5-point lead has been steadily cut to just under 2 percent,” ActiVote pollster Victor Allis reported.
Before Harris officially launched her campaign, Trump was leading Joe Biden both nationally and in all seven key swing states. However, after Biden announced he would not seek re-election, Harris’s candidacy seemed to inject new energy into the Democratic campaign, allowing her to overtake Trump nationally and secure leads in six of the seven swing states.
Yet, polls suggest that Harris's lead is now diminishing.
For the first time since early August, Trump gained an edge over Harris in the Electoral College, according to pollster Nate Silver’s forecast model. Silver’s estimate gave Trump a nearly 5-point advantage over Harris (47.3%), with a 52.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way—it’s not a big difference—this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3,” Silver wrote in an update.
Silver also noted that Republicans have gained ground in every swing state this past week, except for Georgia, with a net gain of 0.2 to 2.1 points.
He added that his model had factored in any polling inflation due to an expected boost for Harris following the Democratic National Convention.
While some betting platforms, like Bet365 and Ladbrokes, show the presidential race as a dead heat, others, including Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, 888sport, Betfair, and Unibet, have Trump slightly ahead of Harris.
Swing state polls have also brought concerning news for Harris.
According to the latest SurveyUSA and KSTP polls, Harris’s lead in Minnesota has halved from 10 points at the end of July to just 5 points now.
In Michigan, Harris’s lead has decreased from 3.3 points on August 21 to 2.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker.
Recent polls show Trump leading in Pennsylvania as well. The Trafalgar Group’s survey puts him two points ahead, while Emerson College and Wick polls indicate a tie between the two candidates among potential voters in the state.
“If she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November,” Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin newsletter.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows Harris holding a 3.2-point lead nationally, while Silver’s model gives her a 3.5-point advantage over Trump nationwide. Both sources indicate that her lead has grown steadily since July.
However, Harris is facing criticism for not holding a formal solo press conference in nearly 45 days since President Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election.
This has led to accusations of a press “avoidance tactic.”
Recently, Harris was spotted leaving a government vehicle with an earpiece connected to her cellphone, suggesting she might have been listening to something, as she headed to Air Force Two for a campaign event in Detroit, Michigan. She briefly waved at reporters before boarding the plane.