Ocasio-Cortez Surges Ahead of Schumer in Stunning New Poll
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer may be facing serious trouble in the next election cycle, as a new poll shows Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) holding a significant lead in a hypothetical Democratic primary.
According to a survey conducted by Data for Progress, Ocasio-Cortez is leading Schumer by a striking 19-point margin in a potential 2028 Senate primary in New York. Despite Schumer’s current leadership role in the Senate, his standing with Democratic voters appears to be eroding.
The poll, carried out between March 26 and 31, surveyed 767 likely Democratic primary voters in New York. When asked to choose between Schumer and Ocasio-Cortez in a head-to-head matchup, 55% said they would back Ocasio-Cortez, while 36% supported Schumer.
This result wasn’t an outlier. The data also showed Schumer as the Democratic figure with the highest disapproval rating among those tested. Meanwhile, Ocasio-Cortez ranked among the most popular, just behind Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Vice President Kamala Harris, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).
The polling comes at a time when Schumer’s alignment with GOP lawmakers on a spending bill brokered with former President Trump has fueled progressive backlash. Many on the left see his bipartisan efforts as a sign of weakness rather than strategy.
An overwhelming 84% of respondents said they believe that Democrats in Washington aren’t doing enough to push back against Trump and the broader MAGA movement. This growing dissatisfaction with establishment leadership is ringing alarm bells within the party.
Ocasio-Cortez’s appeal appears broad and deep. Among voters under 45, she holds a staggering 50-point lead. Even among those 45 and older, she maintains an 8-point advantage. Her support cuts across racial, gender, and educational lines—outperforming Schumer among white, Black, and Latino voters, as well as across both men and women. Schumer’s only edge was among moderates. All participants were shown biographical summaries of the two candidates before making their choice.
After reading about her background, primary win in 2018, and policy priorities, Ocasio-Cortez’s favorability climbed from +59 to +69. Schumer’s numbers also improved, rising from +26 to +47, but the bump wasn’t enough to change the race’s outcome. Even after voters were exposed to negative messaging about both candidates, the results remained largely unchanged. A narrative painting Ocasio-Cortez as “a polarizing, attention-seeking figure” only swayed 14% of voters.
In contrast, 33% found the critique of Schumer—as “a career politician too intertwined with corporate interests and too willing to align with MAGA Republicans”—to be “very concerning.” This highlights a core issue for Schumer: despite his seniority and influence, many Democrats now see him as a relic of the past, while Ocasio-Cortez represents a bold future.
Whether she ultimately launches a Senate bid remains to be seen, but the poll makes one thing clear: the momentum is on her side.
“This poll really does show that Democrats are united in just wanting to stand up, wanting to fight, wanting to see someone taking a stand for them,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director at Data for Progress.
Deiseroth noted that her organization has consistently challenged traditional Democratic leadership. She pointed to a 2021 poll that identified then-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema as a vulnerable figure ahead of a possible primary challenge. Sinema later left the Democratic Party, registered as an Independent, and chose not to seek another term.
Political commentator Mark Halperin weighed in recently, suggesting that if Ocasio-Cortez enters the race, Schumer may not be able to compete.
“If she ran against him, I know exactly what she would say to try to beat him,” Halperin said. “It’s very hard for me to imagine how Schumer could come back because the way to try to beat her would be to go negative on her — ‘she’s inexperienced, she’s too left-wing.’ It seems to me that all that would backfire.”
“And so I think if she runs against him, he has to quit the race because I don’t think he can defend himself against her,” he added.