AI Model Makes Stunning Prediction of 2028 Presidential Winner
A political firestorm is brewing online after an artificial intelligence model released a speculative projection of the 2028 presidential election — years before voters will even know the final nominees.
The projection was generated using Grok, an AI chatbot developed by the company associated with Elon Musk. A YouTube host prompted the system to simulate a 2028 electoral outcome based on hypothetical candidates from both major parties. The result included a full electoral map, state-by-state breakdowns, and projected vote totals.
As the host explains, “In this video, I asked Grok AI to predict the 2028 presidential election and give us a map forecast.”
While the race remains years away and purely theoretical, the model’s conclusions quickly sparked discussion among political observers.
Vance Emerges as AI’s GOP Favorite
According to the simulation, Vice President JD Vance would defeat former Vice President Kamala Harris by a decisive margin — 312 electoral votes to 212. As always, 270 electoral votes are required to secure the presidency.
On the Republican side, early polling within the hypothetical scenario places Vance far ahead of other potential contenders. He reportedly holds 49.2 percent support, with Donald Trump Jr. trailing by nearly 29 points. Senator Marco Rubio registers 12.5 percent, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis comes in at 9.2 percent.
The model assigns Vance a 46 percent chance of capturing the Republican nomination, compared to Rubio’s 18 percent.
The host notes: “If nothing big changes, he will very likely become the party’s nominee in the next presidential race.”
That projection reflects the growing consolidation of the GOP’s America First coalition during President Donald J. Trump’s second term, as voters increasingly prioritize border security, economic nationalism, and constitutional governance.
Harris Leads Early Democratic Field — For Now
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris currently leads early primary polling at 32 percent. She is followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 23.8 percent. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg sits just under 10 percent, while Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro trail closely behind.
The host acknowledges Harris’s political rebound, stating that “many people did write Kamala Harris off following her 2024 election defeat.”
Recent data suggests a resurgence in her prospects. Betting markets now estimate a 56 percent chance she will seek the Democratic nomination in 2028 — up sharply from just 11.2 percent only months ago.
“Today, it is more likely than not that she is going to run again,” the video states.
The Electoral Map: A Rightward Shift
Grok’s simulation categorized “solid” states as those with a margin of 15 points or more.
Vance’s projected solid column includes: Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, most of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Ohio.
The inclusion of Ohio stands out. Once a perennial battleground, the Buckeye State has moved sharply rightward in recent election cycles.
“It is not difficult to see that he will carry the Buckeye State by a solid 15-point margin,” particularly following Donald Trump’s double-digit win there in 2024, the host said in the video.
Harris’s solid states largely mirror her 2024 coalition, including Washington, California, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Maine’s first congressional district. Notably, the model predicts that Connecticut and Delaware would return to solid Democratic margins after narrower performances earlier in the decade.
After tallying solid states, Vance leads 139 electoral votes to Harris’s 108.
The “likely” category — defined as margins between 5 and 15 points — further expands the Republican advantage. Vance is projected to win Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Alaska, and Maine’s second district.
Florida and Texas are viewed as firmly Republican given recent GOP gains, while Arizona — narrowly won by President Trump in 2024 — is expected to remain in Republican hands.
With both solid and likely states accounted for, Vance reaches 246 electoral votes, just 24 shy of the 270 threshold. The final projection ultimately pushes him to 312 electoral votes compared to Harris’s 212.
A Reminder: It’s Only a Simulation
It bears repeating that this forecast is entirely speculative. No official nominees have declared, and political dynamics can shift dramatically in two years.
Still, the projection underscores broader trends — the GOP’s structural strength across Middle America, demographic realignments, and the consolidation of conservative voters behind a post-Trump standard-bearer aligned with the President’s second-term agenda.
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