Analysis: Polls Appear To Be Overstating Democrat Support
Republicans picked up a possible boost this week as new surveys showed GOP candidates narrowly leading in Senate races in Texas and Kansas. The results arrive after other polls suggested Democrats were gaining ground in states that have long favored Republicans.
RealClearPolitics co-founder and President Tom Bevan highlighted the latest numbers Friday, while warning that even a small polling error could affect which party controls the Senate after voters cast ballots on November 3.
In Texas, an InsiderAdvantage poll found Republican nominee Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico, 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters. The one-point margin is within the survey’s 2.83-percentage-point margin of error.
That finding contrasts with much of the recent polling in the state. Talarico has posted narrow leads over Paxton in several surveys during the final weeks of the campaign.
The RealClearPolitics average through October 14 showed Talarico at 48.2 percent and Paxton at 46 percent. Individual polls have ranged from a six-point Talarico advantage to the latest one-point lead for Paxton.
Bevan said Republicans may be wondering whether surveys are once again underestimating GOP support, especially given polling misses in previous presidential elections involving President Donald Trump. But he cautioned that the results will have to be evaluated after Election Day.
“We won’t know until all the votes are counted and we can do an analysis,” Bevan cautioned, noting that midterm polling errors have historically been less predictable than those involving Trump himself.
The Texas race is a major test for Democrats. The party has not won a statewide election there since 1994, yet Talarico has remained competitive with Paxton throughout the campaign.
Bevan noted earlier this month that Paxton has won statewide office before, having been elected Texas attorney general three times.
Kansas offers another reason to be cautious about treating earlier polls as settled predictions. Republican Sen. Roger Marshall now holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton in the latest InsiderAdvantage survey. Marshall is at 48 percent and Hamilton at 47 percent, reversing the pollster’s October 9–10 results, which showed Hamilton ahead by the same margin.
The RealClearPolitics average through October 14 also showed a close contest, with Marshall at 46 percent and Hamilton at 45.7 percent.
The race has drawn attention because Kansas has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator in more than 90 years. Trump carried the state by more than 16 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Republicans have devoted additional attention and resources to Marshall as the contest has tightened. Trump has endorsed the incumbent and promised to campaign for him.
Bevan said that if Republicans outperform the current polls by just a few points, the Senate outlook could change significantly.
“Democrats are ahead in the polls,” Bevan acknowledged during an October 8 appearance on Fox News, saying that the surveys would point to substantial Democratic gains if they proved entirely accurate.
“But if the polls are overstating Democratic support by two points, or Republicans outperform by two points, they will keep the Senate,” he added.
The new Texas and Kansas surveys suggest close races, but do not prove that polling is broadly undercounting Republicans. Both GOP leads are only one point, within each survey’s margin of error.
Democrats also remain competitive in other contests. Republicans are defending a wide range of Senate seats, including in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas.
Polling experts from both parties have cautioned that identifying which respondents will actually vote remains a major challenge. Midterm electorates can differ substantially from those in presidential elections, and pollsters must estimate who will turn out.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told The Washington Post that surveys showing large Democratic advantages should be approached carefully. Republican pollsters have likewise pointed to the difficulty of reaching and accurately modeling conservative voters who are less likely to respond to surveys.