CNN’s Data Expert Gives Dems Reality Check On Eve Of Midterms

Democrats predicting a major “blue wave” in next month’s midterm elections may be getting ahead of the numbers, CNN data analyst Harry Enten warned Friday. Even a routine polling miss could change the outcome of closely fought races for control of Congress.

Democrats currently hold narrow leads in several Senate contests that could decide which party controls the chamber. But Enten noted that most of those margins are smaller than the average polling error in competitive Senate races.

The polling averages he cited showed Democrats ahead by four points in Ohio, three in Michigan and Texas, two in Maine and one in Iowa. Kansas was tied. If those averages matched the November 3 results, Democrats would win enough seats to take control of the Senate, where Republicans now hold a 53-47 majority.

Enten urged caution, pointing to historical polling errors in close Senate races. Final polling averages have missed the results by an average of about 3.7 percentage points, he said. Most of this year’s pivotal Senate contests fall within that range, leaving room for small polling errors to produce a very different map.

Enten called the possibility a “big siren warning sign for Democrats,” particularly given Republicans’ stronger-than-expected performances in several battleground states in recent elections.

To illustrate the stakes, he modeled a scenario in which Republicans outperform current polling averages by 3.75 percentage points. Under that hypothetical, the GOP would win close contests in Maine, Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Iowa and Alaska and finish with a 52-48 Senate majority, according to his analysis.

Enten said the same level of Republican overperformance could also preserve the party’s narrow House majority. Republicans currently hold 218 seats to Democrats’ 214, with two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with the GOP.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take control, making a small number of competitive races decisive.

Enten raised similar concerns in September while reviewing polling errors in Iowa, Ohio and Michigan, where Democrats have posted encouraging numbers late in the campaign. In major 2024 races, Republicans outperformed September polling by nine points in Iowa, six in Ohio and five in Michigan, according to his analysis.

The pattern was not limited to presidential elections involving Donald Trump. During the 2018 midterms, Republicans also exceeded September polling by six points in Iowa and Ohio and eight points in Michigan, Enten said.

Those past errors do not guarantee Republicans will outperform polls again in 2026. Polling methods, voters and individual races change from one election to another. Enten has also emphasized that polls are tools rather than predictions: holding a lead is better than trailing, but a narrow advantage should not be treated as a certain victory.

The warning carries particular weight in the Senate, where several Democratic candidates’ leads are smaller than the average historical polling error Enten cited. The House presents a different picture: Democrats generally have stronger national generic-ballot numbers, but the GOP’s slim majority leaves little room for error across competitive districts.

Reuters reported Monday that more than $3.8 billion in political advertising had already aired during the 2026 midterm cycle. Both parties are pouring resources into congressional races, especially Senate contests in Texas, Ohio and Michigan.

“The polling has been tight,” Enten said, concluding that the Senate remains too close to call and that Republicans are “very much in the ball game.”