Control of the House Could Run Through New York as Republicans Fight for Four Swing Seats
As Americans head to the polls, the battle for the House majority may hinge on a handful of districts in a state better known as a Democratic stronghold: New York.
The chamber is closely divided, with 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies in the 435-member House. A swing of only a few seats could decide who holds the speaker's gavel in January.
New York has played that role before. Republican state Chairman Ed Cox has pointed to 2022, when GOP gains in the state helped deliver the party its House majority.
Democrats are confident the map will break their way this time. State party Chairman Jay Jacobs predicted his party would win back control, citing its incumbents and openings in the Hudson Valley and upstate. "Hakeem Jeffries will be the next speaker of the House," Jacobs said.
Long Island Rematches
In the Third District, Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi faces Republican Mike LiPetri, a former state assemblyman, in a rematch. Suozzi beat LiPetri by three points in 2024 in a district covering North Shore communities, parts of Queens and Huntington in Suffolk County.
Republicans have poured resources into the race. A Trump-linked super PAC has steered about $10 million toward LiPetri, and he won the endorsement of the police department in Suozzi's hometown, which had previously backed the Democrat.
Suozzi returned to Congress through a February 2024 special election after Republican George Santos was expelled, having earlier left the seat for an unsuccessful 2022 primary challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Next door, in the Fourth District, Hempstead tax receiver Jeanine Driscoll is challenging freshman Democrat Laura Gillen on Nassau County's South Shore. Gillen lost to Republican Anthony D'Esposito in 2022 and beat him in 2024. D'Esposito, now the Labor Department's inspector general, passed on a third matchup, and Gillen's opponents accuse her of claiming credit for funding she opposed.
Lawler's High-Dollar Defense
In the Hudson Valley, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is defending the 17th District against Democrat Cait Conley, an Army combat veteran who served as an adviser in the Biden administration.
The race is one of the most expensive in the country. AdImpact puts total advertising above $50 million, including about $30 million from Republican groups and $20.9 million from Democrats, second only to North Carolina's First District among House contests.
Lawler has won the seat twice, defeating Democratic campaign chief Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 and Rep. Mondaire Jones in 2024.
A Fractured Fight in the North Country
Republicans face a different kind of test in the 21st District, the North Country seat left open by Elise Stefanik. Trump-endorsed printing-company owner Anthony Constantino is running against Democratic farmer Blake Gendebien.
Constantino won his primary over a candidate backed by local Republican and Conservative Party leaders, and the divisions have lingered. He does not live in the district, and the Conservative Party ballot line was left blank. He has spent $17 million of his own money, while the Democratic House Majority PAC has put in $1.4 million.
Democrats have also hit Constantino over his support for Trump's trade policies toward Canada. "It's a fractured Republican Party," strategist O'Brien Murray said, arguing that infighting and worries about everyday costs give Democrats an opening.
Vice President JD Vance was scheduled to campaign with Constantino on Monday in a bid to unite the party, according to the New York Post. Murray called Vance the right messenger to argue that keeping the seat matters more than leftover primary grudges.
Results from these four districts may not be known until late Tuesday night, and with the margin this thin, they could tell the story of the entire House.