Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is facing an increasingly grim outlook as his bid for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate loses traction—especially among a group that once formed the backbone of his electoral base: Jewish Democrats.

A new poll conducted by the Honan Strategy Group for the Jewish Voters Action Network (JVAC) paints a sobering picture for Schumer’s campaign. The numbers show Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, leading Schumer by a striking 12-point margin in a hypothetical primary match-up among Jewish Democrats—45 percent support her, while only 33 percent back Schumer. Another 17 percent remain undecided.

“This is a huge wake-up call for Schumer,” said Maury Litwack, co-founder of the Jewish Voters Action Network, in comments to the New York Post. “He’s losing support not just in the Democratic Party, but also within the Jewish community.”

For a politician who has long touted his Jewish heritage and maintained strong support within the Jewish electorate, this erosion is no small matter. Now 74, Schumer is up for re-election in 2028 and is beginning to feel the heat from both sides of his own party.

Litwack made it clear that the poll doesn’t necessarily indicate a groundswell of enthusiasm for Ocasio-Cortez, but rather a steep decline in Schumer’s credibility. The Bronx congresswoman has made headlines with inflammatory rhetoric against Israel, accusing the Jewish state of committing “genocide” in response to its defensive military operations in Gaza following the brutal October 7, 2023, Hamas-led terror attacks.

But for JVAC, the bigger issue lies in Schumer’s perceived silence during the rise of antisemitic protest movements in the U.S. during the war. “The leading Jewish elected official in the nation failed to step up in the face of rising antisemitism — and the poll reflects that,” Litwack said.

One sore spot cited by JVAC: Schumer’s failure to pass the Antisemitism Awareness Act in 2023, despite Democrats controlling both the Senate and the White House at the time, and Schumer himself serving as Majority Leader. Further damaging his standing, Schumer was implicated in a House report alleging he advised Columbia University administrators to ignore antisemitism complaints—claims he has since denied.

Beyond these issues, Schumer has also come under fire from fellow Democrats. Many within his own caucus voiced discontent after he opted not to force a government shutdown earlier this year. Instead, Schumer advanced a six-month spending deal to avoid a clash with President Donald Trump—a move that angered progressive Democrats like Ocasio-Cortez, who demanded a more confrontational approach toward the GOP.

“I think there is a deep sense of outrage and betrayal,” Ocasio-Cortez said at the time. “And this is not just about progressive Democrats. This spans across the entire party. There are members of Congress who have won Trump-held districts in some of the most difficult parts of the country, who took huge risks… only to see Senate Democrats even consider giving in to Elon Musk. I think it’s a huge slap in the face.”

Adding insult to injury, a separate poll from the left-leaning Data for Progress revealed Ocasio-Cortez leading Schumer by a whopping 19 points in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary. Even more concerning for Schumer: he held the highest disapproval rating of any Democratic figure tested, while Ocasio-Cortez ranked among the most approved—behind only Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

As the 2028 election approaches, Schumer’s dwindling support within key constituencies is sounding alarm bells. With President Donald Trump continuing to dominate the political landscape and conservative momentum building across the country, the Democrats may be headed for a civil war within their own ranks—one that Chuck Schumer might not survive.