Cuomo Surges As NYC Mayoral Race With Mamdani, Sliwa Comes Down To Wire

New York City could wake up Wednesday with its first-ever socialist mayor — as more than two million voters are expected to cast ballots Tuesday in one of the most unpredictable and consequential elections in the city’s history.

A new AtlasIntel poll released Monday shows Democratic Socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani clinging to a narrow lead with 43.9%, just ahead of former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who drew 39.4%, according to The New York Post. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, the Guardian Angels founder and conservative talk show host, holds 15.5% — down sharply from 24% in a previous survey.

In a potential head-to-head race, the poll found Cuomo would defeat Mamdani 49.7% to 44.1%, suggesting Sliwa’s conservative base could prove decisive in preventing a far-left takeover of City Hall.

“Some of the Sliwa supporters are switching to Cuomo. They’re peeling off,” said Lee Miringhoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “These are voters who prefer Cuomo to Mamdani.”

Trump Weighs In: “You Have No Choice”

The race took a dramatic turn Monday night when President Donald J. Trump made a direct appeal to New Yorkers on Truth Social — urging them to vote for Cuomo to stop the socialist candidate.

“Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice,” President Trump wrote. “You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”

Trump’s rare cross-party endorsement underscored the stakes of the election. Mamdani, a far-left Democrat endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, has advocated for rent cancellation, defunding police, and a “people’s budget” that would gut business incentives.

Mamdani tried to turn Trump’s statement into political fuel, declaring himself the “true anti-Trump candidate” after the president told 60 Minutes he would choose Cuomo over a “communist.” Cuomo brushed off the exchange, joking that Trump would “make a meal” of Mamdani and quipping, “I’m much better looking than him anyway.”

The Final Push Across Five Boroughs

On the eve of Election Day, Mamdani, Cuomo, and Sliwa blitzed the city — from Brooklyn Bridge rallies to Staten Island town halls — as they made their closing arguments to a weary but energized electorate.

More than 730,000 New Yorkers already voted early over the nine-day period ending Saturday, with younger voters dominating the final days — a strong signal for Mamdani’s campaign, which relies heavily on Gen Z and Millennial turnout.

However, analysts warn that a larger Election Day turnout could favor Cuomo, as moderate and independent voters are expected to lean his way.

“As the turnout gets larger, it leans more moderate and brings in the independents,” said Stephen Graves of Gotham Polling. “That benefits Cuomo because he was getting more independent while the vast majority of Mamdani’s voters were Democrats.”

A Race Too Close to Call

Despite Mamdani’s edge, some experts believe the socialist’s lead is overstated. AtlasIntel’s sample of 2,400 voters included only 59% Democrats, far below the city’s traditional makeup.

“Mamdani having a negative rating is a sea change,” said Republican pollster John McLaughlin, who also serves as a Trump campaign adviser. “Either the issue attacks on him are working or there are too few Democrats in the poll.”

The poll found 44% view Mamdani unfavorably compared to 50% favorably, marking the first time his numbers have turned negative heading into Election Day.

Meanwhile, Marist surveys continue to show Democrats making up closer to two-thirds of likely voters, while early voting data showed Democrats accounted for 73% of ballots cast — compared to 11% Republicans and 15% independents.

Analysts predict turnout could exceed 2 million, the highest since 1969, when liberal Mayor John Lindsay narrowly secured re-election amid deep social unrest.

With Mamdani’s radical platform, Cuomo’s political comeback, and Trump’s last-minute intervention, the 2026 New York City mayoral race is shaping up as a national referendum on the direction of America’s largest city — and a test of whether socialism can truly win in the heart of capitalism.