The Democratic Party is confronting a stunning free fall in voter registrations across the country, while Republicans — powered by President Donald J. Trump’s growing populist movement — are enjoying historic gains.

According to a New York Times analysis of registration data from L2, a respected nonpartisan firm, Republicans outpaced Democrats in new voter registrations for the first time since 2018. The shift accelerated after the 2024 election, when President Trump shattered old political assumptions by expanding his appeal among young voters, Latino communities, and working-class Americans nationwide.

The numbers are devastating for Democrats. “Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot,” the Times reported. The net swing: roughly 4.5 million voters. Democrats shed about 2.1 million registrants while Republicans added 2.4 million.

Even deep-blue bastions haven’t been spared. California, one of the Democrats’ safest states, has seen notable losses, while many GOP-led states such as Texas don’t even record partisan registration — meaning the real Republican advantage could be even greater.

In states where registration data is available, Democrats’ once-commanding lead is eroding rapidly. In 2020, the party led Republicans by 11 points across 30 states plus Washington, D.C.; by 2024, that edge had collapsed to just over six points.

Michael Pruser, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, offered a blunt assessment: “I don’t want to say, ‘The death cycle of the Democratic Party,’ but there seems to be no end to this. There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year.”

The collapse is most evident in swing states that will decide future presidential and congressional contests. North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada all reported Republican advantages in new voter registrations between 2020 and 2024.

For years, Democrats relied on nonprofit networks to register young voters and minority communities, often bankrolled by anonymous donors who enjoyed tax breaks for their efforts. That model assumed most new voters would lean left. But President Trump’s ability to attract blue-collar, nonwhite voters has upended that equation.

As the Times noted, blind mass-registration drives no longer guarantee Democrats an advantage. The party is now forced to pursue expensive, highly targeted outreach to identify and register loyal supporters. Analysts estimate that securing a single reliable Democratic voter can now cost hundreds of dollars — a figure that makes scaling up nearly impossible.

Meanwhile, Republican grassroots operations are thriving. Fueled by Trump’s MAGA movement, the GOP has tapped into a wave of enthusiasm among working-class Americans, Latinos, and young men, adding depth and durability to its coalition.

Adding to the Democrats’ woes is what even their own strategists call a leadership vacuum and muddled messaging. While President Trump has united his movement around a clear “Make America Great Again” vision, Democrats remain fractured over policy priorities and campaign strategy. That disunity makes it harder to energize donors and mobilize grassroots support.

The implications are profound. A shrinking Democratic registration edge could reverberate across congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative races, further weakening the party’s already strained infrastructure.

If President Trump and his political heirs continue expanding the MAGA coalition across demographic lines, Democrats’ registration crisis may only deepen. For now, the data leaves no doubt: momentum is running hard against the left.