Dems Stand to Lose Dozens of Congressional Districts at SCOTUS

At least nineteen Democrat-held congressional districts could swing Republican depending on the outcome of a major redistricting case that returned to the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday — a decision that could reshape the political map ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The case, Louisiana v. Callais, centers on whether Louisiana’s decision to create a second majority-black congressional district violates the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. The Fourteenth guarantees equal protection under the law, while the Fifteenth prohibits racial discrimination in voting.

Attorneys for Louisiana argued that the state legislature was forced into compliance by the Biden-era Justice Department — compelled to redraw the map or face federal intervention.

“Either we created the second black-majority district or the DOJ was going to do it for us,” one attorney said during oral arguments.

The ruling could have nationwide consequences, potentially redrawing district lines in multiple states and altering the balance of power in Congress.

According to Newsweek, the Court’s decision could determine how legislatures interpret Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which has long been used to challenge maps alleged to weaken minority voting strength.

Plaintiff Phillip Callais and a group of non-black voters contend that Louisiana’s revised map amounts to an unconstitutional racial gerrymander — a claim that could severely restrict the future use of race-based districting nationwide.

Democrats, increasingly reliant on racially gerrymandered districts to maintain House control, are publicly nervous about how the Court’s 6–3 conservative majority might rule.

Left-leaning advocacy groups Fair Fight Action and the Black Voters Matter Fund warned that a ruling for Callais could trigger the redrawing of at least 19 Democrat-held districts, potentially flipping them Republican.

President Donald J. Trump, who has made election integrity and fair representation a hallmark of his second term, has signaled support for states pursuing mid-cycle redistricting efforts that strengthen the constitutional principles of equal protection and political balance.

Among the districts that could be affected are two in Alabama and two in Louisiana — all historically Democratic strongholds but newly vulnerable if the Court reins in Section 2’s expansive interpretation.

Represented by Democrat Shomari Figures, this district includes Mobile and most of the Montgomery metro area. Roughly 50% of residents are black and 41% white. After being redrawn in 2024, it flipped to Democratic control in 2025 — a change many conservatives argue was driven by racial quota politics rather than community representation.

Held by Democrat Terri Sewell since 2011, the 7th District spans Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Selma — historically Democratic turf. Over 51% of its 718,000 residents are black, compared to 39% white. No Republican has held the seat since 1967.

Covering New Orleans and extending north toward Baton Rouge, this district has been represented by Democrat Troy Carter since 2021. Nearly half of its 736,000 residents are black, and 33% are white. A Republican last held the seat in 2011, but a Court decision narrowing racial redistricting standards could make it newly competitive.

At the heart of Louisiana v. Callais, the 6th District stretches from Shreveport to Baton Rouge. It is currently held by Rep. Cleo Fields, a Democrat who previously served in Congress in the 1990s. The district’s population is 52% black and 36% white — another map critics say was engineered to guarantee a Democratic seat.

The Supreme Court’s upcoming decision could mark a turning point in how race is considered in electoral mapmaking — either reaffirming decades of race-based gerrymandering or restoring a color-blind constitutional approach to district design.

If the conservative majority sides with Callais, Republicans could gain double-digit seats nationwide, potentially locking in a durable House majority heading into 2026.

President Trump has made clear that his administration supports efforts to end politically motivated redistricting that favors one racial group over another.

“We’re going to have fair elections and fair maps — not maps designed to divide Americans by color,” Trump told reporters earlier this week.

As Democrats brace for the ruling, many in Washington acknowledge the stakes could not be higher. The outcome may well determine whether race-conscious mapmaking remains a legal tool — or becomes a relic of a bygone political era.