Election Expert Uses AI to Predict 2028 Election Winner

The 2028 presidential election is more than two years away, and neither Vice President JD Vance nor Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has secured a nomination. Still, one hypothetical map from the election-analysis channel Election Time has drawn attention for projecting a decisive Vance victory over Ocasio-Cortez, 339 electoral votes to 199.

The projection is a scenario, not a poll or a confirmed forecast. Its outcome depends on both candidates securing their parties’ nominations and on the analyst’s assumptions about how states would vote.

“Her nomination would be a dream come true for the GOP as she is by far the most beatable candidate Democrats could select,” the video’s author declared.

The article also points to Ocasio-Cortez’s public comments about freezing her eggs as a sign of possible political ambitions. She has not announced a presidential campaign, though she has not ruled out running for president or the Senate. Kalshi lists her at 14% in its current market for the Democratic presidential nominee; that is separate from markets about whether a candidate will run. apnews.com

In Election Time’s map, Vance starts with 188 electoral votes from reliably Republican states, including Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina and Alaska, along with most of Nebraska.

The analyst then projects additional states moving into Vance’s column.

“With AOC as his opponent, Vance is going to have a few additional states in his safe column,” the analyst noted.

Ohio, Vance’s home state, is categorized as solidly Republican, as are Iowa and Texas. The projection bases those calls in part on President Donald Trump’s 2024 margins in those states.

“The vice president can no doubt improve upon Trump’s 2024 performance,” the narrator said.

Ocasio-Cortez’s solid-blue states total 98 electoral votes in the map, concentrated on the West Coast and in the Northeast, along with Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Maine’s 1st Congressional District.

“She doesn’t even crack 100,” the analyst observed.

In the likely category, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Maine’s 2nd District bring Vance to 246 electoral votes, 24 short of the 270 needed to win. Ocasio-Cortez is assigned Oregon, Colorado, Illinois, New York and other East Coast states, bringing her total to 179.

“The main reason behind her poor performance is simply the fact that she’s too progressive,” the author explained.

“AOC is the obvious successor to Bernie Sanders… if she does end up winning the nomination, Democrats are going to push away a ton of moderates, basically handing Vance the swing states.”

The map gives Ocasio-Cortez a narrow advantage in New Mexico and New Jersey, lifting her projected total to 198. It places Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in Vance’s column, describing the result as a sweep of the former Blue Wall.

“This rightward shift is not going to stop anytime soon,” the analyst warned. “The GOP is only going to do better and better in the Midwest in the coming years.

“As a result, Vance is going to sweep the entirety of the former blue wall,” said the analyst.

The projection also puts Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia in the Republican column. The analyst predicts Minnesota would flip because of Vance’s Midwestern appeal and Ocasio-Cortez’s perceived lack of ties to the region, ending a 56-year Democratic streak in the scenario.

Virginia, described as competitive since Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 win, becomes “the third flip on our map for the vice president.”

The final projection gives Vance 339 electoral votes and Ocasio-Cortez 199.

“J.D. Vance is on track to being elected the next president,” the author concluded.

“Meanwhile, AOC has still not crossed 200… the worst for any Democrat since Michael Dukakis in 1988, worse than both Clintons in 2016 and Harris’s in 2024.”

The map’s conclusion is emphatic, but it rests on a hypothetical matchup and state-by-state judgments made years before Election Day. The analysis argues that progressive positions could cost Democrats moderate voters, while Republican gains in the Midwest could reshape the electoral map. Those are the video author’s assessments, not settled outcomes.