Florida Republicans Lead the Early Vote by Nearly 61,000 Ballots as Moody Holds Her Polling Edge

Florida has crossed the four million mark in early and mail voting, and Republicans are in front heading into the last days before the midterms.

Election analyst E_DataGuy reported the latest totals on Thursday.

"Florida has crossed 4 million early and mail votes (4,013,781), with Republicans holding a 60,951 firewall," the analyst wrote.

That lead grew by roughly 14,000 in a single day, with about 295,000 new votes added. The breakdown shows 1,616,839 Republican ballots, 1,555,888 Democratic ballots and 841,054 from other voters.

An election model from the same analyst paints a far rosier picture for the GOP, with a projected Republican range of 56% to 62% against 37% to 43% for Democrats. Even the lowest Republican estimate tops the highest Democratic one by 13 points. That projection assumes 50% final turnout and is a forecast, not a tally of how anyone marked a ballot.

Conservatives should not get complacent, though. The analyst noted that the party mix "sits around 40% R / 39% D / 21% other — still softer for Republicans than 2024 (42.9%) and 2022 (42.9%), with Democrats running above both years."

In the Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody faces Democrat Angie Nixon, and public polling also favors the incumbent. RealClearPolling lists Moody at 49.4% and Nixon at 43.2%, a lead of 6.2 points. A Stetson University survey this month put Moody ahead 52% to 41% among likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate.

That lead is narrower than the model's ranges, but both measures point the same way: Republicans are in the stronger position statewide.

Republicans also go into the closing days with serious money behind them. Federal records show MAGA Inc., the outside committee that backs President Trump's agenda, still held about $164.3 million through October 14. The Associated Press reported that the group had put out nearly $277 million since September began, including $200 million for No Going Back PAC and $25 million for Safety & Affordability PAC, and that the president wants his operation to spend more than $400 million by Election Day.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, meanwhile, announced $50 million raised in the third quarter and entered October with $61 million on hand. Its $28.5 million September haul included a $14 million transfer from the Republican National Committee.

The NRCC says its September total topped the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by more than $2 million. Senate Leadership Fund and Congressional Leadership Fund also reported large reserves through June, with $238.6 million and $141.8 million on hand respectively, though those balances are months old.