GOP Candidate In Historically Blue State Takes Lead In Gubernatorial Race
Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Dudley is showing early strength against Democratic Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek, according to a new hypothetical general-election poll that could signal serious trouble for Democrats in a state they have dominated for decades.
Dudley, a former NBA player and businessman who has never held elected office, has entered the race with a high-profile background that blends professional sports, private-sector leadership, and nonprofit work.
He played 16 seasons in the NBA, including six years with the Portland Trail Blazers, giving him a familiar name among Oregon voters. After retiring from basketball in 2003, Dudley transitioned into business, co-founding Filigree Wealth Advisors and later serving as chairman and chief executive officer of Diabetomics.
He also founded the Chris Dudley Foundation and previously served as treasurer of the National Basketball Players Association.
A new poll commissioned by Dudley’s campaign and conducted by Hoffman Research Group surveyed 603 likely general-election voters from May 11 to May 12. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
In a hypothetical head-to-head race, Dudley led Kotek 48% to 44%.
Another matchup showed Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan tied with Kotek at 45% each.
The poll also delivered troubling numbers for the incumbent Democrat. According to the survey, 53% of respondents viewed Kotek unfavorably, while only 33% had a favorable view of her. Even more alarming for Democrats, 58% of voters said Oregon is headed in the wrong direction.
Pollsters did not test a hypothetical matchup between Kotek and Republican state Rep. Ed Diehl.
The numbers come less than a week before Oregon’s May 19 Republican primary, which will determine who moves forward under the state’s vote-by-mail election system.
According to the survey summary, both Dudley and Drazan appear competitive against Kotek. However, Dudley was the only Republican tested who actually held a lead in the hypothetical general-election matchup.
Still, any Republican nominee will face a difficult political environment. Oregon has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 1994, when Jack Roberts won the race for labor commissioner. The last Republican elected governor of Oregon was Victor Atiyeh, who won reelection in 1982.
But Kotek’s weak approval numbers and the large share of voters saying the state is on the wrong track suggest that Oregon Democrats may be more vulnerable than usual.
The political warning signs are not limited to Oregon.
One state south, early ballot data out of California is also raising eyebrows among Democrats less than a month before the state’s gubernatorial primary.
The California Secretary of State’s office released its official report on ballots returned so far ahead of the June primary. The data shows Republicans are outperforming expectations in early ballot returns, while Democrats are lagging behind previous numbers in the deep-blue state.
According to the report, the Republican share of early voters has risen sharply and is running more than nine percentage points above voter registration.
The numbers showed:
Democrat Share of Early Ballot Returns: 41%, down 7% from 2022
Republican Share of Early Ballot Returns: 34%, up 8% from 2022
Independent Share of Early Ballot Returns: 25%, up 2% from 2022
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, a San Diego Republican, warned against reading too much into the early figures but said the trend is clearly encouraging for conservatives.
“When you take a look at the numbers, both in comparison to the numbers four years ago and voter registration, Democrats are way down and Republicans are up in early voting,” DeMaio told The Post.
“It may mean that many Democrats are taking longer to decide on the governor’s race and who ultimately they want to lead,” DeMaio added.
Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. also cautioned that the numbers are still early.
“The early days part is important because some of what we’re seeing is which counties are quicker at returning the data to us,” Mitchell said.
Even so, the early turnout pattern appears to favor older and more conservative voters, a group that regularly participates in low-turnout elections.
Roughly 4.3% of voters age 65 and older have already cast ballots. That compares with 2% of voters between 50 and 64, 1.1% of voters between 35 and 49, and just 0.7% of voters between 18 and 34.
“It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election. They probably almost always vote early, and they’re getting their ballots in right away,” Mitchell said.
While Democrats still enjoy major structural advantages in both Oregon and California, the latest numbers suggest conservative voters may be more energized than the political establishment expected.
In Oregon, Kotek’s weak standing and Dudley’s early lead could open the door for a rare Republican opportunity. In California, early ballot returns show that Republican voters are not sitting on the sidelines.
For a party that has long relied on blue-state dominance, Democrats may soon have to confront an uncomfortable question: are voters in even their safest territory beginning to push back?