GOP Nominee Keeping Oregon Governor’s Race Exceedingly Close
Oregon’s race for governor is shaping up to be a close contest, with Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan nearly even with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek less than a month before Election Day.
A new poll for The Oregonian/OregonLive gives Kotek 46% support among likely voters and Drazan 44%. Another 6% favor a different candidate, while 4% are undecided. Kotek’s two-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error, so the results do not establish a clear leader.
DHM Research surveyed 549 likely Oregon voters from Sept. 29 through Oct. 4. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
The numbers mark a modest shift from an August DHM poll, which put Drazan at 44% and Kotek at 41%, with 11% undecided. The change suggests more voters may be choosing sides, though differences within the polls’ margins of error should be treated cautiously.
Kotek has support from 92% of Democratic respondents, while 89% of Republicans back Drazan. Independent and unaffiliated voters are more divided—a potentially consequential group in a state where unaffiliated voters make up a substantial share of the electorate.
Drazan Seeks to End a Long Democratic Run
The contest is a rematch of Oregon’s unusually close 2022 gubernatorial election. Kotek won with about 47% of the vote, compared with Drazan’s 43.5%. Independent candidate Betsy Johnson received nearly 9%, complicating the contest by drawing support from voters who might otherwise have chosen one of the major-party candidates.
Kotek’s victory continued a Democratic winning streak in Oregon governor’s races dating to 1986. The last Republican elected governor was Victor Atiyeh, who won reelection in 1982.
Drazan is campaigning on the argument that the state needs a change in leadership, pointing to homelessness, crime, education and the cost of living. Kotek has defended her record while acknowledging ongoing challenges involving housing affordability, behavioral health and homelessness.
Housing and Cost of Living at the Center
Housing has been one of the defining issues of Kotek’s first term. After taking office in 2023, she declared a homelessness emergency and set ambitious housing-production goals. Her administration has urged lawmakers to increase construction, expand shelter capacity and provide more resources to communities addressing homelessness.
Kotek has argued that Oregon’s housing shortage accumulated over decades and will require sustained state investment. Drazan has countered that high housing costs and visible homelessness remain widespread despite increased government spending. She has called for fewer regulatory barriers, faster construction and greater accountability from state agencies.
The candidates have also clashed over taxes and the broader cost of living. Drazan has tied Kotek to a Democratic establishment that has governed Oregon for decades. Kotek has described her approach as bipartisan and warned that Drazan would reverse policies involving abortion rights, labor protections and environmental regulation.
Their second televised debate this week brought those contrasts into sharper focus, with disagreements over public safety, homelessness, education, taxes and President Donald Trump’s administration. Drazan called for new leadership after decades of Democratic control. Kotek pointed to her experience and her administration’s work on housing and behavioral health, while defending protections she says matter to Oregon voters.
The poll offers only a snapshot of the race several weeks before the votes are counted. Oregon conducts elections primarily by mail, and voting patterns can differ from those in states where most ballots are cast at polling places on Election Day.
With the candidates separated by two points—less than the poll’s margin of error—the survey points to a competitive race, not a clear favorite.