House Poised To Extend ACA Subsidies As Hope Grows For Deal
The House of Representatives is poised to approve legislation Thursday afternoon that would extend the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced tax credits for three additional years—a move Democrats are hailing as a political victory and one that has emboldened centrist Republicans hoping it could force a broader bipartisan compromise.
While the measure is expected to pass the House, it faces steep resistance in the Senate, where Republicans blocked an identical three-year extension in December. Still, the looming House vote has reignited negotiations among a bipartisan group of senators seeking a narrower package that could win approval in both chambers.
Moderate Republicans who helped trigger Thursday’s vote by backing a Democratic discharge petition say momentum is now shifting. They argue a bipartisan House vote will pressure the Senate to act more quickly and seriously on a compromise.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), one of four Republicans who broke with leadership to advance the measure, said he expects “a substantial number of Republicans” to back the bill as a signal to Senate negotiators. Lawler added that ongoing talks point toward a shorter extension paired with policy changes.
“We’ve been working with the senators for weeks, and the framework that they are … trying to finalize is very much in line with what I have been saying from the start, about a two-year extension with reforms,” Lawler said. “I think that’s ultimately where we can get.”
The standoff over the expanded ACA subsidies has dragged on for months, reviving long-standing ideological divisions over the federal government’s role in health care and contributing directly to the Democrat-led 43-day government shutdown last fall.
Absent a deal, roughly 22 million Americans currently receiving subsidies could see their health care costs rise sharply early this year—an outcome that helped spur Republican moderates to force a vote. Democrats, meanwhile, see health care as a potent election issue heading into November and have aggressively warned of political consequences if Republicans allow the subsidies to expire permanently.
“Something better happen,” Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) said. “I don’t think that Trump will be able to Venezuela his way out of the problems around not extending these credits.”
The debate has placed President Donald J. Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), and GOP leadership in a familiar bind. Health care remains one of the Republican Party’s most difficult policy challenges and a potential vulnerability as the party seeks to maintain control of the House in the midterm elections.
Many Republicans would prefer to sidestep the issue entirely by allowing the enhanced subsidies—originally enacted under former President Joe Biden as a temporary COVID-era emergency measure—to expire. But moderates argue that doing so without reforms risks economic and political fallout.
Any compromise faces significant hurdles, particularly Republican demands that federally subsidized ACA plans be barred from covering abortion services. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) made clear this issue is non-negotiable.
“You’ve got to deal with the Hyde issue,” Thune said Tuesday, referring to the Hyde Amendment, which prohibits federal funds from directly paying for abortions.
Democrats counter that current law already ensures abortion services are funded only with state or private dollars, even in states where ACA plans include such coverage—an argument Republicans reject.
President Trump injected new momentum into negotiations on Tuesday, urging House Republicans to show “flexibility on Hyde” as discussions continue, raising hopes among GOP moderates that a deal could still be reached.
But abortion policy is not the only sticking point. Thune said any Senate-viable package must include structural reforms, including income limits for subsidy eligibility and a ban on $0-premium plans, which he says enable automatic enrollments that benefit insurers rather than consumers.
Thune also emphasized the need for a “bridge” to health savings accounts, allowing individuals greater control over how their health care dollars are spent—an approach more consistent with free-market principles and consumer choice.
Whether those reforms can be reconciled with Democratic demands remains unclear. But Thursday’s vote ensures the fight over Obamacare subsidies—and the future of federal health care policy—will remain front and center on Capitol Hill.