JD Vance Blames Iran War for GOP Midterm Losses: 'The Reason We Lost Is the War'
Vice President JD Vance has broken his silence after Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in Tuesday's midterm elections, and his explanation for the defeat is sure to stir debate inside the Republican Party.
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote in a lengthy post on X on Wednesday, pointing to voter frustration over the war with Iran and America's relationship with Israel.
Vance said the problem was not that Republican voters stayed home. Instead, he argued, many people who backed the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024 showed up and voted for Democrats this time.
“Our Voters Are Turning Out, But They May Not Vote for Us”
The vice president described how the party's data analysts had obsessed over the makeup of the electorate in the run-up to Election Day. Despite polls showing a Democratic blowout, he said, turnout looked solid. In some states it was merely OK, in others “downright amazing,” and in none was it catastrophic.
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That gave his team a sense of optimism. But when Vance asked a trusted data expert whether Republicans were about to shock the world, the answer was no. The expert warned that many 2024 Trump-Vance voters were angry and planning to vote for the other side.
“Well, that looks prophetic now,” Vance wrote. He pointed to Florida, where the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democratic, just a couple of points worse than 2024. “The main problem is not turnout,” he said.
The Four Answers
Vance said another pollster told him Republicans would lose the generic ballot by 13 points. That pollster asked Trump voters who had abandoned the GOP what would bring them back. According to Vance, nearly all of the answers fell into four categories: end the war, focus on the cost of living and inflation, put America First, and change the U.S. relationship with Israel.
He also said one pollster told him the party's economic messaging was not sharp enough down the stretch, and that he was sure that was true. But he insisted the real reason was “obvious to almost everyone.”
Vance came to the defense of Rachel Campos-Duffy, who was criticized on Monday for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. He wrote that her political advice turned out to be sound and called her “a great person.”
A Warning About Amnesty
Looking ahead, Vance predicted months of what he called gaslighting, warning that establishment politicians would claim amnesty is the answer to Republican woes. He said he is open to changing how immigration laws are enforced, such as focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, but added: “anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.”
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He noted that President Donald Trump himself had said the war was the reason for the loss. Vance challenged those who disagree to make their case openly, asking them to argue that losing the Senate for the next six years was a cost worth paying.
“Agree or disagree, that's at least honest,” he wrote. “But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”
Vance ended on a hopeful note. He told frustrated conservatives who had warned about this outcome that they were right, and urged them to channel that energy into electing Republicans who share their worldview. He called on everyone angry about the results to get back to the work of saving the country.