Key GOP Senator Surges to Double-Digit Lead Over Democrat in Senate Race

Republican Sen. Tom Cotton leads Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner by 11 points in a GrayHouse survey circulated ahead of November’s midterm elections.

An Election Time post on X reported Cotton at 50% and Shoffner at 39%. The poll surveyed 550 likely Arkansas voters from September 30 through October 4.

A separate polling compilation listed the same survey at 51% for Cotton, 40% for Shoffner and 4% for Wadlin. The figures differ slightly from the post, but both show Cotton ahead by 11 points. Neither version is an election result, and the poll’s methodology remains important when assessing its findings. Voters supporting third-party candidates or still undecided could also affect the race.

The survey adds to a favorable picture for Cotton. An August J.L. Partners poll showed him leading Shoffner by 16 points, with 51% support to her 35%; Wadlin received 4%.

Cotton is seeking a third Senate term in a state that has become reliably Republican. First elected in 2014, he defeated Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Cotton won reelection in 2020 by approximately 33 points, underscoring the challenge Democrats face in trying to unseat him.

Before entering the Senate, Cotton served in the House. He has since become a prominent advocate for a strong military and a tougher approach toward U.S. adversaries. Shoffner, a farmer and the Democratic nominee, is offering Arkansas voters an alternative to the state’s Republican leadership.

The contest matters nationally as both parties compete for control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold a 53–47 majority, and defending seats in reliably conservative states such as Arkansas is central to the party’s effort to retain control.

The GrayHouse survey gives Cotton a notable advantage, but polling measures voter preferences at a particular moment. Arkansas voters will decide the race on Election Day.