Late Tim Walz Likely to Exit Race in Mere Hours as Gargantuan Somali Welfare Fraud Batters Ex-VP Candidate

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is expected to announce Monday that he will not seek another term, a stunning reversal that would cap a rapid fall from grace for a Democrat once touted as a rising national figure.

The anticipated decision follows the circulation of viral videos raising serious questions about the legitimacy of Somali-run, taxpayer-funded daycare centers in Minnesota—a state already rocked by one of the largest welfare fraud scandals in U.S. history. Much of that fraud has been tied to organizations operating within Minnesota’s sizable Somali community, with billions of dollars allegedly siphoned off through weak oversight and political indifference.

Walz, first elected governor in 2018 and later tapped as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in the 2024 election, had been widely expected to pursue a third term. Minnesota imposes no gubernatorial term limits, and until recently, Walz was viewed as politically secure.

That perception shifted late Sunday night when Minnesota political insider Blois Olson reported that Walz would hold a media briefing Monday and was “likely to drop out of the 2026 #mngov race.” Olson added that he met Sunday with Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the state’s senior U.S. senator, suggesting coordinated discussions were already underway.

Local station KMSP-TV said it could not independently confirm that Walz’s 11 a.m. news conference would include a withdrawal announcement, with a spokesperson stating only that the governor would address “the news of the day.”

Prediction markets, however, appeared unconvinced by the ambiguity. As of early Monday morning, Polymarket showed a 91 percent chance Walz would exit the race by Tuesday, while Kalshi saw his odds collapse from near-certain nomination to just 8 percent within hours.

The timing also followed blunt remarks from President Donald Trump, who criticized Walz aboard Air Force One, calling him “a very stupid, low IQ governor,” “a stupid man,” and “a corrupt politician.”

If confirmed, Walz’s exit would mark a dramatic reversal for a politician who, just two years ago, was one heartbeat away from the presidency and even floated by some Democrats as a potential 2028 dark-horse presidential contender.

Walz was elevated to national prominence after then–Vice President Kamala Harris scrambled to select a running mate following President Joe Biden’s abrupt withdrawal from the 2024 race. Initially viewed as a long-shot pick, Walz surged after Harris reportedly developed a strong personal rapport with him during interviews. Media reports indicated Harris was uneasy with the perceived ambition and personality of the presumed frontrunner, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

Walz also gained attention for helping popularize the Democratic talking point branding Republicans—particularly Donald Trump and J.D. Vance—as “weird,” a narrative the New York Times credited with boosting his late momentum in the veepstakes.

Despite glowing media portrayals casting Walz as a model of “positive masculinity” capable of giving men a “permission structure” to vote Democratic, his selection never proved to be a political win. Harris ultimately lost Pennsylvania, reviving questions about bypassing Shapiro, and Walz himself increasingly appeared awkward and outmatched next to his Republican counterpart, now–Vice President J.D. Vance.

Walz’s national rollout was further undermined by a string of controversies, including allegations of stolen valor and scrutiny over misleading statements about his presence in China during the Tiananmen Square protests.

Yet it was the sprawling Feeding Our Future scandal that truly unraveled his political standing.

The welfare fraud case, which centered on Somali-run nonprofits that allegedly performed little charitable work while extracting massive sums from government programs, first surfaced in 2022 following an FBI raid triggered by a whistleblower complaint. By 2025, the scale of the fraud became undeniable, with Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson estimating that “half or more” of the $18 billion spent on Medicaid programs in Minnesota may have been fraudulently disbursed.

Walz and other Minnesota Democrats attempted to minimize the damage, particularly as President Trump moved to tighten immigration policies, target abuses of Temporary Protected Status for certain Somali migrants, and pause immigration from high-risk regions.

But renewed scrutiny followed after a video by YouTuber Nick Shirley questioned the legitimacy of Somali-run daycare centers across the state, once again placing the governor under an unforgiving spotlight.

If expectations prove correct, that spotlight may soon move on—leaving behind a cautionary tale of unchecked bureaucracy, political protection, and a Democratic star undone by scandal.