Michigan Early Vote Is Razor Close as Rogers and El-Sayed Enter the Final Stretch

Republicans are getting encouraging numbers out of Michigan, where a new early voting model suggests the Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is about as tight as a contest can be.

Election analyst E_DataGuy reported that more than 1.7 million ballots are already in.

"Michigan is up to 1,704,753 early votes, with Democrats holding a slim 6,364 modelled firewall. The modelled split is essentially even at 49.2% D / 48.8% R, almost identical to the 2024 result (49.1% / 48.9%)," the analyst wrote.

The analyst added that about 152,000 votes came in over the previous day and that the modeled Democratic edge grew by roughly 1,600. As in Georgia, those party shares are estimates, because Michigan has no party registration and official counts by party will not be known until Election Day.

A graphic from the same analyst dated October 29 goes a step further and lists Republicans as the current leader in its Senate model, with a projected GOP range of 48% to 54% against 44% to 50% for Democrats. That forecast assumes final turnout of 52%, so it depends partly on who has yet to vote.

The polling tells a less rosy story. The RealClearPolitics average has El-Sayed at 48.8% and Rogers at 45.6%, a Democratic lead of 3.2 points. Taken together, the numbers point to a genuine fight rather than a settled result, and nothing here is a certified vote total.

Michigan could prove pivotal to control of the Senate, and Republicans have the resources to compete there through the final weekend.

Republicans also go into the closing days with serious money behind them. Federal records show MAGA Inc., the outside committee that backs President Trump's agenda, still held about $164.3 million through October 14. The Associated Press reported that the group had put out nearly $277 million since September began, including $200 million for No Going Back PAC and $25 million for Safety & Affordability PAC, and that the president wants his operation to spend more than $400 million by Election Day.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, meanwhile, announced $50 million raised in the third quarter and entered October with $61 million on hand. Its $28.5 million September haul included a $14 million transfer from the Republican National Committee.

According to the NRCC, its September fundraising beat the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by more than $2 million.

Earlier filings show the scale of the outside effort as well. Senate Leadership Fund reported raising $253.7 million with $238.6 million remaining through June, while Congressional Leadership Fund reported $163.2 million raised and $141.8 million on hand as of June 30. Those are snapshots from months ago rather than current balances, but they show how much Republicans built up for this cycle.