Michigan Senate Race Tightens as Early Voting Data Is Positive For GOP

An election analyst’s latest look at Michigan’s early and absentee voting shows a close partisan split, but the figures do not reveal how voters marked their ballots or which Senate candidate they support.

A graphic posted October 14 by the account E_DataGuy counted 520,541 early and mail votes. It classified 256,859 as Democratic, 253,209 as Republican and 10,471 in another category, giving Democrats a 3,650-vote edge that the analyst called a “firewall.”

The graphic labeled the Senate contest “TOSSUP” and projected a 46 percent to 52 percent vote range for both parties. It also estimated final turnout at 52 percent. The screenshot did not explain the model’s methodology, assumptions or how it assigned partisan classifications.

Michigan does not publicly disclose how individual voters cast their ballots. The analyst’s categories therefore describe his classification of voters or returned ballots, not confirmed votes for either Senate candidate.

Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, is challenging Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director. They are competing for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

Rogers has emphasized national security, border enforcement and economic issues. El-Sayed has promoted expanded health coverage and policies he says would lower costs for working families.

Recent polls offer a separate snapshot of the race. The RealClearPolitics average of surveys through October 10 showed El-Sayed at 48.4 percent and Rogers at 45.7 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted October 9 and 10 put El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 46 percent, while a Quantus Insights survey showed a one-point gap. A Fox News poll conducted September 24 through 28 found El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 49 percent.

Polls survey voter preferences and carry sampling and other uncertainties. Ballot-return data measures participation; it cannot show candidate support before votes are counted.

Official absentee figures offer another measure of Michigan’s early voting activity. As of October 13, more than 2.08 million voters had requested absentee ballots, including nearly 1.99 million on the state’s permanent absentee ballot list. By that morning, 440,677 ballots had been returned, about 6 percent of the state’s nearly 7.4 million active registered voters.

That official snapshot predates the analyst’s October 14 graphic. The difference between the figures does not, by itself, establish a contradiction, but the totals have not been independently reconciled.

Absentee voting began September 24, and in-person early voting in Detroit is scheduled to start October 24. Election Day is November 3.

The nearly even partisan classification in the graphic may offer Republicans an encouraging talking point, but it cannot be treated as a Rogers vote count. Polls showing El-Sayed ahead also do not determine how remaining voters will participate or how the ballots will ultimately be counted.