Midterm Bombshell - Early Voting Numbers Released And Wow
More than 10 million Americans had cast ballots by October 20, according to CNN. Early participation appeared strong among Democrats in several battlegrounds, but the numbers remain an incomplete guide to Election Day: early ballots do not show how voters ultimately chose, and turnout patterns can change as voting continues.
Republicans are also working to change a pattern that once gave Democrats a sizable early-voting advantage. GOP campaigns have increasingly urged supporters to vote before November 3 instead of relying on Election Day turnout. National Review’s Noah Rothman has argued that Democrats may now be confronting their own anxiety over early-voting trends.
Ohio offered Republicans one potentially encouraging signal. An October 19 post by election analyst E DataGuy listed 574,341 ballots cast and estimated a 72,136-vote Republican “firewall.” That figure is a partisan estimate, however: Ohio does not register voters by party, and official ballot totals do not reveal how people voted.
The broader picture is mixed. Cook Political Report moved Minnesota’s open Senate race from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic,” suggesting a more competitive contest while still favoring the Democrat. Recent polling has also produced narrow leads for both parties. A Cook battleground survey, for example, showed Democratic Senate candidates narrowly ahead in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa.
Republicans enter the final stretch with major financial resources across party committees and outside groups. An Associated Press review earlier this month estimated roughly $1 billion across Republican organizations, compared with about $579 million among Democratic groups. MAGA Inc., the super PAC aligned with President Donald Trump, held nearly $416 million at the end of August. Those sums are spread across multiple organizations and are not a single pool available to every candidate.
Recent filings show Trump-aligned groups have since spent heavily: AP reported nearly $277 million in spending to support Republican candidates since early September. MAGA Inc. raised about $25 million from September 1 through October 14, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $50 million in the third quarter and entered October with $61 million in cash. Its September receipts totaled $28.5 million, including a $14 million transfer from the Republican National Committee. The NRCC reported raising $250 million for the cycle, just ahead of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s $249 million. Those figures concern House races; they should not be counted as money directly available to Senate candidates.
The fundraising advantage gives Republican groups room to advertise and contact voters, but late spending can be costly, and money alone cannot guarantee victories. Democrats also have substantial funding and are continuing to compete nationwide.
Early voting may provide clues about enthusiasm and organization. The decisive test, however, will be whether either party can turn that activity into votes on November 3.