Midterm Earthquake - Two States Flip
Republican candidates have moved ahead in several closely watched Senate contests just days before the November 3 midterms, offering the party fresh momentum as it tries to defend its 53-47 majority.
Recent surveys show GOP candidates leading in Texas, Kansas and Iowa, along with at least one poll each in Ohio and Michigan. The margins remain tight, and other polls in several of the same states show Democrats ahead.
In Texas, an InsiderAdvantage survey conducted October 13-14 found Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico, 49% to 48%, among 1,200 likely voters. The poll’s margin of error was 2.8 percentage points.
That result contrasts with several recent surveys from Marist, Siena, YouGov and the University of Texas that showed Talarico ahead. The RealClearPolitics average also gives the Democrat a lead, 48.5% to 46.3%. A CBS News survey conducted through October 16 found Talarico ahead 51% to 49%, underscoring how closely divided the race remains.
In Kansas, the latest InsiderAdvantage poll put Republican Sen. Roger Marshall ahead of Democrat Adam Hamilton, 48% to 47%. That one-point advantage moved Marshall narrowly in front in the RealClearPolitics average, 46% to 45.7%, after earlier surveys alternately showed Marshall and Hamilton leading.
Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in more than nine decades, making the race’s competitiveness one of the more unexpected developments of the campaign. President Donald Trump traveled to the state Monday to campaign for Marshall. Trump carried Kansas by roughly 16 points in 2024.
Michigan also produced a recent poll showing a Republican advantage. A Tyson Group survey of 600 people, conducted October 6-8, found Republican Mike Rogers leading Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, 46% to 44%.
The firm’s release said it “finds Mike Rogers pulled slightly ahead in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race.”
“In our latest survey, Republican Mike Rogers leads Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 46%-44%. Rogers gained three
points since our previous statewide Michigan survey, which was fielded September 24-27,” the release said.
Iowa has also seen several recent surveys placing Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson ahead of Democrat Josh Turek in the contest for retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s seat. A co/efficient poll conducted October 19 showed Hinson leading 48% to 45%, while a Trafalgar Group survey from October 13-15 gave her a 45.9%-44.2% edge.
Earlier in October, Emerson College found Hinson ahead 47%-45%, and CNN polling showed her leading 45%-43%. Marist and YouGov, however, have recently reported narrow advantages for Turek. The mixed results highlight the race’s volatility, though the newest co/efficient and Trafalgar surveys put the Republican in front.
Ohio’s polling is similarly divided. Rasmussen Reports recently found Republican Sen. Jon Husted leading former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, 49% to 47%. An ActiVote survey released October 18 showed Husted ahead by an even narrower margin, 50.2% to 49.8%, while an earlier co/efficient poll gave him a one-point lead.
Other polls favor Brown. A new Marist survey released Tuesday put the Democrat four points ahead, and the RealClearPolitics average currently shows Brown leading 47.4% to 44.6%.
Maine remains closely watched, though recent polls do not show Republican Sen. Susan Collins ahead. InsiderAdvantage, Suffolk University and Rasmussen have each found Democrat Troy Jackson leading 49%-47%. The RealClearPolitics average gives Jackson a 1.6-point advantage. An earlier co/efficient poll showed Collins ahead by two points, keeping the veteran Republican within striking distance in a state where she has previously outperformed pre-election polling.
Fox News anchor Bret Baier highlighted the uncertainty Sunday, saying Republicans could finish with a 52-48 Senate majority if GOP candidates outperform current averages by margins comparable to polling misses in past elections.