New Poll Is Great News For GOP Ahead Of ’26 Midterms

A new survey from the Napolitan News Service — conducted online by Scott Rasmussen with fieldwork from RMG Research, Inc. — shows the political winds shifting even further toward Republicans as the 2026 midterm map begins to take shape. The poll, centered on voter sentiment heading into the high-stakes midterms, puts the GOP ahead by four points on the generic congressional ballot.

Respondents were asked a straightforward question: “If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican from your district or the Democrat from your district?”

Among registered voters, 45 percent chose the Republican candidate, while 41 percent backed the Democrat. When independent “leaners” were factored in, the GOP still held a solid 48–44 percent advantage — an expansion from September 2025, when Republicans led 46–45 percent including leaners.

Throughout 2025, Republicans have consistently led the generic ballot in most months, with Democrats showing short-lived advantages in April and May. The two parties briefly pulled even at 47 percent each in August, but the late-year numbers once again show Republicans opening up breathing room.

Despite the topline GOP advantage, Democrats posted a narrow two-point edge in enthusiasm, 50 percent to 48 percent — though the internal dynamics tell a more complicated story. The poll found a substantial enthusiasm divide within the Republican coalition:
• 43 percent of Trump-aligned voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting.
• Only 22 percent of traditional Republican voters expressed the same level of motivation.

Age also played a defining role. Voters 65 and older were the most energized, with 57 percent calling themselves “very enthusiastic.” That number dropped sharply to 27 percent among voters ages 18–34 and 35–44.
Notably, 64 percent of voters who identified as “very enthusiastic” said they discuss politics every day or nearly every day — reinforcing the link between political engagement and turnout strength.

The survey did not release further demographic data, including gender, region, race, or education.

Still, the outlook is undeniably encouraging for Republicans. Historically, the party in power — in this case, President Donald J. Trump’s GOP — tends to lose seats during midterms, but the current environment appears far more fluid. Some analysts caution that the Napolitan News poll could prove an outlier, as the RealClearPolitics polling average currently shows Democrats up nearly five points. However, many of those surveys come from pollsters with poor accuracy records in recent cycles, leaving open the question of whether the RCP average is skewed.

Meanwhile, Democrats are starting the election cycle in financial disarray.

The Democratic National Committee recently secured a massive $15 million loan, according to a filing first reported by Politico. The committee portrayed the credit line as an early investment intended to strengthen state parties and boost candidates in New Jersey and Virginia. But the reality is difficult to ignore: the DNC is running on fumes, struggling with leadership turmoil and a lack of tangible wins following its failed government-shutdown gambit.

“The national party committee framed the line of credit as an early investment to boost its candidates in New Jersey and Virginia earlier this month, and help build up state parties ahead of next year’s midterms. But the need for a loan still puts the DNC in sharp contrast with its GOP counterpart, the Republican National Committee, which was sitting on $86 million at the end of September,” Politico reported.

The outlet added that while the DNC has taken out loans before, “usually not this early in the cycle or of this magnitude all at once.”

Financial strain has been mounting since 2025, when the DNC burned through over $15 million to cover expenses from former Vice President Kamala Harris’s failed presidential campaign. Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, were defeated decisively by President Donald Trump in the 2024 election after their campaign consumed roughly $1.5 billion in donations.

President Trump, by contrast, celebrated the GOP’s growing financial strength over the summer.

“The Republican Party is doing really well. Millions of people have joined us in our quest to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN,” he wrote on Truth Social.

With Republicans holding a lead on the generic ballot, Democrats scrambling for cash, and the party base increasingly aligned behind President Trump’s second-term agenda, the early outlook for 2026 is shaping up to be anything but predictable — and potentially far more favorable to the GOP than historical trends would suggest.