New Polling Shows Who’s Leading Maine Senate Race

Republican Sen. Susan Collins is maintaining a narrow advantage in Maine’s Senate race, according to a new poll that shows her attracting support even from an electorate that would prefer Democrats to control the chamber.

The New York Times/Siena University survey puts Collins at 49% and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson at 46% among likely voters, with another 5% undecided.

The three-point gap is within the poll’s 4.9-percentage-point margin of sampling error, leaving the contest without a statistically clear leader as the Nov. 3 midterm elections approach.

Conducted Sept. 15-22, the survey included 619 likely Maine voters. Early voting in the state begins Oct. 5, narrowing the window for both campaigns to influence voters before ballots are cast.

The findings illustrate why Maine remains a closely watched contest in the battle for Senate control. Collins is running ahead of her party’s standing while Jackson has yet to translate voters’ preference for a Democratic majority into a lead of his own.

Asked which party they wanted to control the Senate after the election, 55% of respondents chose Democrats and 43% chose Republicans.

Yet Collins leads the individual matchup, suggesting that some Mainers who favor Democratic control remain willing to send the Republican incumbent back to Washington.

Collins has represented Maine since 1997 and built a political identity around her willingness to depart from Republican positions on selected issues. The poll suggests that her personal standing and long tenure continue to carry weight.

One of her strongest advantages comes among white voters without college degrees. Collins leads Jackson 62% to 32% within that group, a substantial margin among an important segment of Maine’s electorate.

Jackson has made his working-class background a central feature of his campaign. The former Maine Senate president grew up in Allagash, in the northern part of the state, and worked in logging before entering politics.

That biography gives him a direct connection to the concerns of working Mainers, but the survey indicates that Collins retains a commanding lead among white voters without a college degree.

The incumbent also holds an advantage on voters’ assessments of character.

Fifty-one percent of respondents said Collins has better character, compared with 38% who chose Jackson.

Most of those interviews occurred before the publication of reporting about a previously undisclosed FBI investigation involving allegations against longtime Collins adviser Steve Abbott.

According to The New York Times, federal investigators opened an inquiry in 2024 into allegations that Abbott participated in a scheme involving potentially illegal campaign contributions.

The investigation was ultimately closed without charges, the newspaper reported.

Collins’ office has firmly rejected the allegations. Deputy chief of staff Annie Clark described them as “categorically false.”

The distinction is significant: the report concerns accusations that were investigated, not an established finding of criminal wrongdoing by Collins or her campaign.

Because most polling interviews preceded publication of the story, the survey cannot show whether the reporting has affected voters’ impressions of the senator.

On another measure, Collins’ advantage is even larger. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said she would be better at bringing federal money and resources to Maine, while 35% selected Jackson.

Collins chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, giving her a powerful role in congressional spending decisions. Her position provides a concrete basis for a campaign argument centered on experience and influence in Washington.

For voters weighing the contest, the poll suggests that the ability to secure resources for Maine remains an important element of her appeal, even when their broader partisan preferences point toward Democrats.

Jackson fares better on health care, although his advantage on the issue is relatively modest compared with the support expressed for one of his principal proposals.

He backs Medicare for All, a proposal that would substantially expand the federal government’s role in health coverage.

Sixty percent of respondents said they would prefer a candidate who supports Medicare for All, compared with 24% who preferred a candidate opposed to it.

That result gives Jackson an opening to emphasize health policy during the final weeks of the campaign. It also underscores the gap between support for a particular proposal and voters’ overall judgment of the candidates promoting it.

Artificial intelligence data centers present another potential point of contention.

The candidates are nearly even when voters are asked who would better handle issues surrounding the facilities. Jackson received 41% on that question, while Collins received 39%.

Voters’ views of the projects themselves are much less closely divided.

Sixty-six percent said they oppose construction of AI data centers in Maine, demonstrating broad resistance that both campaigns may need to address as Election Day approaches.

The survey leaves both candidates with clear opportunities and vulnerabilities. Jackson is competing in a state where voters favor Democratic Senate control and express strong support for his health-care position. Collins counters with advantages on character, her ability to deliver federal resources and support among white voters without college degrees.

With several House and Senate races still unsettled nationally and early voting already underway in some states, Maine’s contest remains consequential. Collins has a narrow numerical edge, but the margin of error and the remaining undecided voters leave the outcome open.