Newsom’s Polling Among Key Constituencies Lags Behind Vance: Report
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a liberal darling long criticized for his state’s high taxes, crushing regulations, and disastrous pandemic mandates, has emerged as an early frontrunner in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. But while he may hold sway over progressive elites, new polling shows that he is deeply unpopular with the voters who decide elections — independents, working-class Americans, and religious constituencies.
A Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 2 places Newsom at 21% among registered Democrats, edging out Vice President Kamala Harris at 19%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10%. Analysts note, however, that despite his narrow lead, Newsom’s vulnerabilities could provide a wide opening for Republicans — particularly Vice President JD Vance, the expected GOP nominee — to capitalize on.
Approval Numbers Paint a Bleak Picture
While Newsom has led in Democratic primary surveys for months, his national approval rating is upside down. A Sept. 9 Cygnal poll found just 38% of likely voters approve of his performance, while 43% disapprove — a net rating of -5.
Among working-class voters without a college degree, the numbers are even worse. These Americans disapprove of Newsom by a 21-point margin, 48% to 27%. That’s a steeper gap than even Kamala Harris faced when she lost non-college voters by 13 points in 2024. For Democrats, this trend is a flashing red warning light in swing states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Swing voters remain another massive challenge. Newsom trails among this group by 12 points, with 41% disapproving and just 29% approving. That is significant, given that independents and unaffiliated voters narrowly chose Harris over President Donald Trump in 2024. Today, independents make up 43% of the electorate, outnumbering both Republicans and Democrats at 28% each — meaning Newsom’s lack of appeal outside the Democrat base could cripple his campaign.
College-educated men — a group Harris narrowly won in 2024 — are also sour on the California governor, with 49% disapproving compared to 46% approving. Even among highly active voters who regularly turn out in elections, Newsom is underwater at 44% approval and 46% disapproval.
And despite the left’s insistence that minority voters are firmly in their corner, Newsom is struggling with a key bloc: religious black Democrats. Sixteen percent of black Democrats who attend religious services monthly or more view him unfavorably, a potential blow in early primary states like South Carolina.
“The next presidential election is just over three years away and a great deal can shift before then, but early polling hints at Newsom’s weak spots with key constituencies, particularly non-college voters and independents,” the Daily Torch reported, adding that if 2028 comes down to Newsom versus JD Vance, “there is also an opportunity for Vance to increase his margins with highly active voters and religious Black voters.”
Controversy Over Cryptic Threat to Kristi Noem
Newsom’s political headaches deepened this past weekend when his press team sparked outrage by posting a bizarre and menacing message directed at Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
“Kristi Noem is going to have a bad day today. You’re welcome, America,” the post read.
The cryptic comment was quickly compared by users on X to ominous online statements made shortly before the assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk earlier this month. Acting U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli has referred the matter to the Secret Service for review.
For a governor who wants to convince voters he’s ready for the national stage, Newsom’s online taunts and his collapsing appeal outside of blue strongholds may prove a devastating combination.