Obama Cautions Democrats Against Counting on Polling Leads
Former President Barack Obama warned Democratic donors this week that close Senate races could still slip away, even where polls currently show Democratic candidates ahead.
Obama spoke Wednesday at a Northern Virginia fundraiser for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which raised about $3.6 million, according to the committee.
He said he was surprised to see Democrats competitive in states that have often been difficult for the party. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico has polled ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, a contest Obama said he would not have expected to be so close. He also pointed to Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, and Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is running against Republican Mike Collins.
But a narrow lead is no guarantee of victory, Obama told the donors.
“We could end up losing all of them by two points,” he said of the close contests.
Polls estimate voter preferences at a particular moment; the final result depends on who turns out and how voters decide by Election Day. Candidates leading by only a few points may remain within a poll’s margin of error.
Obama’s warning tempers Democratic hopes of broad Senate gains. It also reflects a basic reality for both parties: competitive races can break either way, regardless of which candidate leads in a survey.
Delaware Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester joined Obama at the fundraiser, which was organized to support the committee’s effort to elect Democrats to the Senate. Obama also argued that Senate control would shape the federal judiciary, since the Senate confirms judicial nominees.
He warned that two more years of President Donald Trump making additional judicial appointments could threaten democratic institutions. That was Obama’s political assessment, rather than a conclusion established by the polling discussed at the event.
Obama described the judiciary as strained but still functioning in some areas, while criticizing the Supreme Court and suggesting its decisions have not always constrained presidential power. His remarks put constitutional concerns at the center of his case for Democratic Senate control. Federal judges can serve for decades, giving the Senate’s confirmation role consequences well beyond one election cycle.
He also urged unity within a party divided over tensions between progressives and establishment Democrats, saying he expected Democrats to share a commitment to dignity and respect despite disagreements.
Michigan is one state where those divisions and electoral stakes are in focus. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing Republican Mike Rogers in a closely watched Senate race, and Obama is scheduled to campaign with El-Sayed in Detroit later this month.
The fundraiser paired that campaign activity with a warning against assuming victory too early. As Breitbart News reported, fundraising can help campaigns reach voters, but it cannot turn a polling lead into counted ballots. Nor does a favorable survey show whether candidates have addressed voters’ concerns about spending, public safety, and accountability.