Ohio Early Vote Model Showed Republicans With 108,000-Ballot Edge as Husted Battles Brown

Ohio Republicans are heading into Election Day with a head start. A new early voting model shows the GOP holding a lead of more than 108,000 ballots, a promising sign for Sen. Jon Husted in his fight against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

The Numbers

Election analyst E DataGuy released late October projections based on 838,018 early and absentee ballots. His model classified 469,219 as Republican and 360,979 as Democratic, with 4,092 in a separate category.

That adds up to a projected Republican edge of 108,240 ballots, what he called a "firewall" going into Election Day. He rated the race as leaning Republican.

The model projects Republicans could win between 52% and 58% of the final vote, compared with 41% to 47% for Democrats, with overall turnout around 55%.

It is important to note these are modeled party affiliations, not actual votes for specific candidates. The final result is still up to Ohio voters.

Husted vs. Brown

Husted was appointed to the Senate to replace Vice President JD Vance. He now faces Brown in one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.

Ohio has moved steadily toward Republicans in presidential races, giving the GOP a strong foundation this fall.

A Mountain of Money

Republicans also have a big financial advantage. President Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., started September with nearly $416 million.

It then sent $200 million to No Going Back PAC and $25 million to Safety and Affordability PAC to fund ads across the country. The Associated Press reported that Trump-aligned groups have spent nearly $277 million since September, and MAGA Inc. still had more than $164 million on hand as of October 14.

Trump has said his political operation plans to spend more than $400 million before Election Day. Major donors include Elon Musk, Diane Hendricks, Stephen Schwarzman and Steve Wynn.

The Party Committees

Reuters reported that three major Republican committees ended September with about $187 million in cash. From July through September, GOP committees spent roughly $137 million on coordinated congressional campaigns, compared with about $55 million for Democrats.

The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $50 million in the third quarter and entered October with $61 million in the bank.

Police Back the GOP Ticket

Ohio Republicans also have the backing of the state's largest police union. The Fraternal Order of Police of Ohio endorsed Husted, gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and his running mate, Rob McColley.

Ramaswamy called it "a monumental endorsement" and promised to "restore law and order" and "proudly back the blue."

The Final Test

An early vote lead, a huge war chest and law enforcement support add up to real advantages for Ohio Republicans in the closing days.

Brown is a well-known name with a long history in the state, and Democrats will be counting on a strong Election Day turnout to close the gap. On November 3, Ohio voters will decide whether the GOP's head start holds.