Ohio Early Vote Model Shows Republicans Up by Nearly 172,000 as Husted and Brown Battle for the Senate
Republicans appear to be running ahead in Ohio with days to go before the November 3 midterms, according to a new early voting analysis of a state that could help decide control of the Senate.
Nearly 1.39 million Ohioans have already voted, according to University of Florida Election Lab data. Of those ballots, 844,282 were cast in person and 544,698 came by mail. That is already about one-third of Ohio's total 2022 vote, a sign of the interest in the race between Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Election analyst E_DataGuy put the Republican advantage at close to 172,000 votes.
"Ohio has banked 1,388,980 early votes, with Republicans holding a 171,660 modelled firewall," the analyst wrote.
The analyst said about 98,000 votes were added in a day, mostly in person, and that the firewall grew by roughly 11,000. The model places Republicans between 52% and 58% and Democrats between 41% and 47%, a stronger picture for the GOP than several public forecasts.
Republicans should read that with some caution. Ohio does not publish party registration for early voters, so these shares are modeled, and the analyst described the split of about 56% Republican to 43% Democrat as "a touch softer for Republicans than their 2024 share (56.4%), with Democrats slightly firmer (43.1%)."
Still, the state has moved hard to the right in the Trump era. President Trump carried Ohio in three straight presidential elections, turning a former national battleground into dependable Republican ground, and GOP voters there often turn out strongly on Election Day.
The money behind the race
Nationally, the Associated Press reported that Republican-aligned groups had roughly $1 billion heading into October, compared with about $579 million for comparable Democratic organizations. President Trump said his political operation would commit more than $400 million to the midterms, with about $300 million already spent on advertising, voter contact, rallies and election monitoring.
The Republican National Committee ended September with $97.3 million on hand and no committee debt, according to federal filings, while the National Republican Congressional Committee finished the month with about $61.3 million. A $14 million RNC transfer in September helped shore up vulnerable House campaigns.
On the Senate side, the National Republican Senatorial Committee reported more than $237 million in receipts through October 14. Republican committees have also taken advantage of the Supreme Court's decision this summer striking down limits on coordinated party spending. Reuters reported they spent roughly $137 million on coordinated House and Senate efforts from July through September.
In Ohio alone, the NRSC committed $11.2 million in coordinated spending to defend Husted in the special election.