Oregon Governor Race Deadlocked As Republican Eyes First Win In 44 Years

Republican Christine Drazan is running neck and neck with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in Oregon, according to a new survey that highlights deep dissatisfaction with the state’s economy and leadership ahead of their November rematch.

The Oregon Public Broadcasting-commissioned poll gives Drazan a 47%–46% advantage after undecided respondents were asked which candidate they leaned toward. Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith received 3%, while 4% remained undecided.

The one-point difference falls within the survey’s 3.24-percentage-point margin of error. It leaves the contest statistically tied, rather than establishing a clear Republican lead.

Even so, the findings put a potentially historic Republican breakthrough within view in a state where Democrats have controlled the governor’s office for nearly four decades.

DHM Research surveyed 915 likely voters between September 17 and 27, using telephone interviews and online forms distributed by text. Before the follow-up question to undecided voters, Drazan held a 46%–44% advantage, with Smith at 3% and 8% undecided.

With Election Day approaching on November 3, both campaigns face a closely divided electorate—and an unmistakably unhappy one.

Just 29% of likely voters said Oregon was headed in the right direction. Fifty-eight percent disagreed.

Nearly three-quarters rated the state’s economy poorly, according to the report. Asked to identify Oregon’s most important problem, respondents most frequently cited the cost of living, high taxes and homelessness.

Poor leadership also appeared among their concerns, underscoring that the discontent extends beyond household budgets to the performance of state government.

Those findings give Drazan an opening to make the election a judgment on Kotek’s record. The Republican has criticized the governor’s handling of schools, housing, homelessness and the economy, arguing that Oregon needs a change in direction.

Kotek has pursued a different emphasis, seeking to connect Drazan to President Donald Trump and federal policies unpopular with Democratic voters.

The polling suggests that relying on that contrast may have limits.

Kotek’s favorability stood at 38%, only slightly above Trump’s 37%. Drazan was viewed favorably by 45%, although an equal share viewed her unfavorably.

Neither candidate, therefore, enters the closing stretch with overwhelming personal approval. Drazan has a stronger favorable rating than the incumbent, but she still faces substantial resistance of her own.

The race’s regional breakdown offers another warning sign for Kotek.

In the Portland metropolitan area, the governor received 54% support, below the roughly 61% she won there in 2022. Drazan drew 40% in the region and led elsewhere in Oregon, according to OPB’s breakdown.

For Kotek, maintaining a strong metropolitan margin could be essential to offsetting Republican strength across the rest of the state. Any erosion in that advantage would make an already competitive race more difficult.

A Drazan campaign consultant said the findings reflected frustration with Kotek and interest in the Republican’s policy proposals.

Kotek’s campaign countered that electing Drazan would open the door to Trump’s agenda and the federal policies it opposes.

That contrast defines the contest: Drazan wants voters focused on conditions in Oregon, while Kotek is asking them to consider the implications of Republican control in the broader national political environment.

The survey’s ideological questions suggest voters are receptive to different arguments depending on the subject.

On economic issues, 44% preferred a conservative governor, compared with 32% who favored a liberal one.

On social issues, the balance shifted. Forty-two percent preferred a liberal approach, while 37% favored a conservative approach.

As Newsweek reported, those differences help explain why both campaigns can find support for portions of their message. Voters dissatisfied with economic management may be open to Republican leadership without embracing a uniformly conservative platform.

Oregon’s political history remains a substantial obstacle for Drazan.

A victory would make her the first Republican to win the governorship since Victor Atiyeh secured reelection in 1982. Atiyeh served from 1979 until 1987, and Democrats have held the office ever since.

The state has also consistently favored Democrats in presidential elections. Ronald Reagan was the last Republican nominee to carry Oregon, in 1984. In 2024, Kamala Harris defeated Trump there 55% to 41%, according to the report.

A competitive gubernatorial contest is therefore notable even amid a national environment that poses challenges for Republicans.

But Drazan has been in a promising polling position before.

She led some surveys late in the 2022 campaign, only for Kotek to win by approximately three and a half percentage points. That election featured a third major contender, conservative Democrat Betsy Johnson, whose absence from this year’s ballot changes the dynamics of the rematch.

The earlier result is a reminder that a small polling edge does not establish how undecided voters will ultimately break or who will turn out.

Polling this year has also been limited. Other recent surveys showing modest Republican leads have likewise placed the candidates within their margins of error.

Still, the new poll identifies a clear vulnerability for the incumbent: many Oregonians dislike the state’s direction, rate its economy poorly and want a more conservative approach to economic policy.

Whether Drazan can turn that dissatisfaction into a winning coalition will determine if Oregon extends its long Democratic streak—or makes a change that would reverberate well beyond the state.