Pelosi Predicts Democrats Will Retake House During Midterms
Outgoing Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is already declaring victory ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, insisting Democrats are destined to reclaim control of the U.S. House of Representatives despite mounting political headwinds for her party.
During an interview with Jonathan Karl that aired Sunday on ABC News’ This Week, the former House speaker framed a Democratic takeover not as a matter of uncertainty, but inevitability. When Karl cautiously suggested, “So if the Democrats win the House back,” Pelosi quickly interrupted: “No, no, when… When the Democrats win the House back.”
Pelosi also used the appearance to enthusiastically endorse House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the party’s next speaker-in-waiting. “Hakeem Jeffries is ready, he’s eloquent, he’s respected by the members, he is a unifier,” she said, projecting confidence in the party’s future leadership.
Democrats would need to net just three seats to regain the majority, according to The Hill. Yet the political terrain remains far from settled. The Cook Political Report currently classifies 17 House races as “toss-ups” heading into next fall, with Republicans holding 12 of those competitive districts.
Still, Democratic strategists are casting a wide net. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is reportedly targeting 40 House districts it believes could be ripe for pickups in the 2026 cycle.
Party leaders have pointed to recent off-year election results in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City as evidence of growing momentum. In those races, Democratic candidates leaned heavily on promises to lower the cost of living — a message aimed squarely at voters frustrated by persistent economic pressures.
Inflation currently sits at 2.7 percent, down from roughly 3 percent at the start of the year but still above the Federal Reserve’s stated 2 percent target. Democrats argue that lingering economic anxiety, including concerns voiced by some Republicans, could influence the midterm landscape and pose challenges for President Donald J. Trump as he governs in his second term.
At the same time, signs are emerging that could strengthen the president’s political standing. Trump’s approval rating has begun to inch upward, and his chief of staff, Suzie Wiles, confirmed last week that the president is expected to campaign aggressively for Republican candidates to boost turnout.
Economic indicators are also shifting in Republicans’ favor. Prices for everyday consumer goods are easing, with gasoline and eggs seeing especially sharp declines. Falling energy costs typically translate into lower food, electricity, and housing expenses — trends that historically benefit the party in power heading into an election cycle.
President Trump has additionally floated the idea of holding an early-fall GOP convention, arguing it would allow Republicans to highlight policy achievements and energize the party’s base well ahead of Election Day. Democrats have since indicated they may consider a similar move.
Yet even as Pelosi projects confidence, Democrats face a significant popularity problem. The party’s national standing has deteriorated sharply since last year’s presidential election, and new polling suggests the slide is accelerating.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said last week that Democratic approval has plunged to unprecedented lows. Speaking on CNN, Enten remarked that the party’s rating is now “lower than the Dead Sea,” citing recent survey data.
He pointed to a Quinnipiac University national poll, reported by Newsweek, which found deep voter dissatisfaction with Democrats in Congress. According to the poll, congressional Democrats hold a net approval rating of minus 55 percentage points overall.
The numbers are even worse among independents, where the net approval rating drops to minus 61 points. “Quinnipiac University has never found Democrats, at least those in Congress, in worse shape than they are right now,” Enten said.
Notably, the erosion is not limited to swing voters. Democratic voters themselves have grown more critical. Among self-identified Democrats, the party’s approval rating stands at minus 6 percentage points — a staggering 28-point drop from October, when it registered at plus 22.
All of this unfolds as the stakes rise heading into 2026. Republicans currently maintain a narrow House majority, holding a 219–214 edge, while also controlling the Senate by a 53–47 margin. With control of Congress on the line, Pelosi’s confident predictions may soon collide with a far less forgiving political reality.