Poll: AOC Leads Schumer in New York Primary by Double Digits
A recent poll for the 2028 New York primary shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading Chuck Schumer by double digits, amidst growing criticism of the longtime Senate Democratic leader from the far left wing of his party.
The survey, conducted by the liberal group Data for Progress and first reported by POLITICO, reveals that 55 percent of likely Democratic voters support or lean toward Ocasio-Cortez, while Schumer garners 36 percent, with 9 percent undecided.
This poll further highlights a decline in Schumer’s popularity within the Democratic base, particularly following his support for a GOP funding bill last month, which was aimed at preventing a government shutdown. The involvement of Data for Progress in releasing this survey also underscores the continued push from liberal groups for Schumer to adopt a more aggressive stance against President Donald Trump, POLITICO noted.
“This poll really does show that Democrats are united in just wanting to stand up, wanting to fight, wanting to see someone taking a stand for them,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress.
Deiseroth also emphasized that her firm “has a long tradition of wanting to challenge the status quo of Democratic Party leadership.” She pointed out that the firm previously released a survey in 2021 revealing Arizona's then-Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema as vulnerable to a primary challenge, before Sinema re-registered as an independent and ultimately opted not to seek re-election.
While the results of the Schumer-Ocasio-Cortez poll may be far from definitive, as early polls rarely provide accurate predictions, they still generate significant discussion. Ocasio-Cortez has been noncommittal regarding a Senate run, whereas Schumer has already filed for re-election.
Schumer defended his vote on the GOP funding bill, framing it as choosing the lesser of two evils, arguing that a government shutdown would have strengthened Trump.
Although certain liberal factions and House members have urged Schumer to take a stronger position against Trump or resign as minority leader, Schumer has so far managed to keep his Democratic Senate Caucus united, maintaining his leadership position.
Political analyst Mark Halperin remarked last week that if Ocasio-Cortez were to challenge Schumer in the 2028 primary, Schumer might have to step aside.
Speaking on The Morning Meeting, Halperin expressed that Ocasio-Cortez would have powerful arguments to counter Schumer, which could be difficult for him to rebut, as reported by the Daily Caller.
“If she ran against him, I know exactly what she would say to try to beat him. It’s very hard for me to imagine how Schumer could come back because the way to try to beat her would be to go negative on her — ‘she’s inexperienced, she’s too left-wing.’ It seems to me that all that would backfire,” Halperin said. “And so I think if she runs against him, he has to quit the race because I don’t think he can defend himself against her.”
Halperin also referenced the Data for Progress poll but cautioned that “it’s not necessarily the greatest poll in the world.”
Mark Penn, a former pollster and adviser to ex-President Bill Clinton, warned in March that Ocasio-Cortez’s challenge to Schumer could have serious repercussions for the Democratic Party.
“I don’t think she’s going to challenge Schumer, but if she does, I mean, already the Democratic ratings are down to 29%. I’ve never seen anything like it,” Penn stated. “That means the left base is with the Democratic Party and the moderates are all leaving the party."
“So AOC taking off Schumer, wow, that could finish this party off. This could put it into the wilderness the way the Labour Party was for a decade,” he added.
Polls from CNN/SSRS and NBC News published in March showed Democratic Party approval at 29% and 27%, respectively — the lowest ratings for the party in modern history.