Poll Shows Trump-Aligned Ahead In Key Georgia Senate Runoff

Rep. Mike Collins is gaining momentum in Georgia’s Republican Senate runoff, according to a new poll showing the Trump-aligned congressman expanding his lead over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley.

The May 19 Republican primary ended without a nominee after no candidate won the majority required to avoid a runoff. Collins finished first with 40.5 percent of the vote, while Dooley placed second with 30.9 percent.

The two Republicans will now face voters again in a June 16 runoff to determine who will advance to the general election against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.

A new survey from JMC Analytics and Polling shows Collins with a 16-point lead among likely Republican runoff voters, giving the congressman a clear advantage heading into the final stretch of the campaign.

The poll found Collins leading Dooley 55 percent to 39 percent, according to Red State. The survey was conducted May 26 and May 27, shortly after the primary.

Collins also appears to have an advantage among voters who remain undecided. Thirty-nine percent of undecided voters said they were leaning toward Collins, while 27 percent said they were leaning toward Dooley.

The poll also showed Collins ahead in favorability. Twenty-five percent of respondents said they viewed Collins as “very favorable,” compared to 16 percent who said the same of Dooley.

The runoff has become one of the most closely watched Republican contests of the 2026 cycle because the winner will face Ossoff, one of the Democratic Party’s most vulnerable Senate incumbents. ABC News projected Collins and Dooley would advance to the runoff after the May 19 primary and noted that President Donald Trump had not endorsed a candidate in the Senate race.

Collins has centered his campaign on core conservative priorities, including border security, immigration enforcement, support for veterans, fiscal responsibility, and defending working families from Washington’s big-government agenda.

The two-term congressman has also been a vocal supporter of President Donald Trump’s America First agenda and has frequently aligned himself with the administration’s policy priorities.

Nationally, Collins is perhaps best known for introducing the Laken Riley Act in the House of Representatives. The legislation was named after Georgia nursing student Laken Riley, whose murder became a central issue in the national debate over illegal immigration and public safety.

Collins has repeatedly highlighted the legislation on the campaign trail, presenting it as proof that Republicans must take border security seriously and hold Washington accountable when failed policies put American families at risk.

He has also emphasized support for small businesses, working-class Americans, and taxpayers who have grown tired of federal spending, inflationary policies, and political elites who ignore the concerns of ordinary citizens.

Despite Collins’ strong ties to the Trump movement, President Donald Trump has not yet issued a formal endorsement in the runoff. That has left both campaigns competing aggressively for conservative voters without a clear signal from the White House.

Dooley has attempted to build a different case for Republican voters. The former football coach has focused heavily on what he calls a “Georgia First” agenda, stressing public safety, workforce development, education, job training, and affordability concerns facing families across the state.

Dooley has argued that his background outside elected office gives him a different perspective and leadership style. He has also received the endorsement of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, giving him credibility among establishment Republicans and voters loyal to the governor.

The contrast between the two candidates has helped define the runoff.

Collins is running on his congressional record, his support for Trump’s policy priorities, and his role in advancing conservative legislation tied to immigration enforcement and public safety.

Dooley is leaning on his outsider background, management experience, and state-focused message aimed at voters looking for a candidate who emphasizes Georgia-specific concerns.

With less than two weeks remaining before the June 16 runoff, both campaigns are expected to intensify their voter-turnout operations.

For Republicans, the stakes are high. Georgia remains one of the most important battleground states in the country, and Ossoff’s seat is widely viewed as a top GOP pickup opportunity in 2026.

Democrats, meanwhile, see Ossoff as essential to maintaining influence in the Senate and preventing President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda from gaining even more legislative strength.

The latest polling suggests Collins enters the final stretch with a clear advantage. But runoff elections often depend on turnout, organization, and enthusiasm, meaning both campaigns still have work to do before voters make the final decision.

The Republican runoff election is scheduled for Tuesday, June 16.