Polls Put Ken Paxton Ahead of James Talarico in Texas Senate Race
Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has taken narrow leads over Democrat James Talarico in two new polls, giving Republicans a boost as early voting approaches.
An InsiderAdvantage poll released Thursday showed Paxton at 49 percent and Talarico at 48 percent among likely voters. The survey included 1,200 respondents and had a margin of error of 2.83 percentage points.
A separate Quantus Insights poll, released Tuesday, also put Paxton ahead: 47.2 percent to Talarico’s 46.7 percent. The half-point margin is slim, but both surveys show the Republican in front.
The results come as early voting in Texas is set to begin October 19. Other polling has found Talarico competitive or slightly ahead, underscoring how closely contested the race remains.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in decades. President Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, giving Republicans a strong partisan foundation as they work to hold the Senate seat.
Paxton won the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a divisive runoff. Some Cornyn supporters have yet to rally behind the nominee, leaving party unity a key challenge in the final weeks of the campaign.
A Fox News poll conducted in October showed Talarico leading likely voters, 51 percent to 49 percent, within the survey’s margin of error. It also found divisions among Republicans. Paxton, however, drew strong support from white evangelical Christians, rural voters, and older Texans—groups that have long helped Republicans win statewide.
Talarico’s strength with independents could complicate Paxton’s path. Quantus Insights found the Democrat leading that group, 52 percent to 37 percent.
National groups are pouring money into the contest. Breitbart reported that a Texas political committee aligned with the Senate Leadership Fund spent $131 million in September, with more spending expected. Reporting has also pointed to major contributions from billionaire Elon Musk backing Republican Senate efforts and outside spending benefiting Paxton.
Talarico has raised substantial funds of his own, reporting approximately $64 million in third-quarter fundraising. The spending on both sides reflects the stakes: neither party is treating the race as settled.
Republicans say Talarico’s progressive positions could clash with Texans’ conservative views on cultural and economic issues. They are counting on strong turnout, targeted advertising, and a unified party to keep the seat in Republican hands.
Paxton’s latest polling leads offer encouragement, but the margins remain tight. Early voting starts Monday, October 19, and voters will choose their next senator on November 3.