Polls: Unpopular AZ Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs in Reelection Trouble

Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is entering 2026 in political freefall, according to a new poll showing her locked in dead heats with the top Republican contenders — and trailing badly among the voters her party is counting on to save her governorship.

A fresh Emerson College survey released Friday finds Hobbs virtually tied with two of the three leading Republicans vying to unseat her, underscoring how vulnerable the Democrat has become after years of controversy, weak approval ratings, and swelling dissatisfaction across the state.

The poll shows Republican Rep. Andy Biggs — former chair of the House Freedom Caucus — as the clear favorite among GOP primary voters and positioned to advance to the general election. In a hypothetical matchup, Hobbs pulls 44 percent while Biggs sits at 43 percent, well within the survey’s margin of error. Thirteen percent remain undecided.

Republican businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who nearly captured the GOP nomination in 2022, fares similarly. She earns 42 percent to Hobbs’ 43 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

President Donald Trump has endorsed both Biggs and Taylor Robson in the primary, while Biggs also carries the endorsement of slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, who lived in Arizona at the time of his September 10 assassination.

Not all matchups are as close — but none are comfortable for Hobbs. Against Republican Rep. David Schweikert, Hobbs leads 44 percent to 40 percent, just outside the margin of error, with 16 percent undecided.

On the GOP side, Biggs is crushing his rivals. He commands a dominant 50 percent in the primary, compared to Robson’s 17 percent and Schweikert’s 8 percent, while 25 percent of voters are still undecided.

Spencer Kimball of Emerson College Polling summed up the landscape succinctly: “Heading into 2026, Rep. Biggs is the early favorite for the Republican Nomination for Governor. Biggs holds 59% support among voters over 60 and 51% among those who backed Trump in 2024.”

Biggs welcomed the results, arguing they reflect the frustrations everyday Arizonans feel under Hobbs’ leadership.

“The trend lines are clear: Arizona Republican primary voters are rallying behind our campaign because we’re focusing on the issues that matter and we can beat Katie Hobbs in 2026,” Biggs told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Arizonans of all backgrounds are frustrated with our state’s rising energy costs, anemic job growth, and the challenges of buying an affordable home, which are all problems directly tied to Katie Hobbs’ progressive policies and partisan vetoes.”

He continued: “I have the experience and vision to lead our state back to prosperity from Day One as Governor and ensure that every Arizonan can attain the American Dream of a safe neighborhood, a steady job, and an affordable home. We’ll keep working to share our message in every corner of our state and make sure we fire Katie Hobbs in 2026.”

Hobbs heads into this political storm with a bleak record. President Trump won Arizona by more than five points in 2024, and the Emerson poll shows her job approval languishing underwater at 39 percent, with 40 percent disapproving.

Her term has been marred by scandals and accusations of political strong-arming. Following her razor-thin 2022 victory, Hobbs’ office threatened Mohave County Supervisors with arrest and prosecution if they failed to certify election results by the deadline, despite the county requesting additional time — a move that ignited backlash across the state.

A 2024 campaign finance scandal further battered her administration. Just after the 2022 election, Hobbs allegedly accepted a major donation from a group home for foster children in exchange for ordering the Department of Child Safety to hike that home’s daily pay rate far above the state average. The apparent quid-pro-quo arrangement prompted a criminal probe, with Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope labeling it a “pay-to-play scheme.” Arizona Senate Republicans blasted it as a “disgusting abuse of taxpayer dollars.”

Further reporting from the Arizona Capitol Times in May found Hobbs failing to disclose donors funneling large sums into her legal funds in key cases. The state’s largest public utility reportedly contributed $100,000 to support Hobbs' legal defense against a lawsuit from Kari Lake, whom Hobbs defeated by just 17,000 votes in 2022.

Neither Hobbs’ office nor the campaigns of Robson or Schweikert responded to requests for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The Emerson survey, conducted Nov. 8–10, 2025, polled 850 active registered voters and carries a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

With Arizona trending firmly toward President Trump and Republicans consolidating behind Biggs, the political terrain is increasingly hostile for Hobbs — and 2026 may be her toughest test yet.