Republicans Pull Ahead in Key Senate Races as New Polls Shift Days Before the Midterms
With the midterms just days away, a wave of new polling shows Republican Senate candidates edging ahead in several races that could decide control of the chamber.
Recent surveys show GOP candidates with narrow leads in Texas and Kansas, along with fresh Republican leads in individual polls from Iowa, Ohio and Michigan. With Republicans holding a 53-47 majority, even small shifts could prove decisive.
Texas and Kansas Flip in the Polls
In Texas, an InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters found Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico 49% to 48%, with a margin of error of 2.8 points. That was a notable change after recent polls from Marist, Siena, YouGov and the University of Texas showed Talarico ahead. The RealClearPolitics average still gives Talarico a narrow edge, 48.5% to 46.3%, and a CBS News poll had him up 51% to 49%. The race is a true toss-up.
In Kansas, the latest InsiderAdvantage poll showed Republican Sen. Roger Marshall ahead of Democrat Adam Hamilton 48% to 47%. That was enough to put Marshall narrowly ahead in the RealClearPolitics average, 46% to 45.7%, after earlier surveys traded the lead back and forth.
Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in more than 90 years, so the closeness of the race has surprised many observers. President Trump, who carried Kansas by about 16 points in 2024, traveled there to campaign for Marshall.
Good News in Michigan and Iowa
In Michigan, a new Tyson Group poll found Republican Mike Rogers leading Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 46% to 44%. According to the firm, Rogers gained three points since its previous statewide survey.
In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson holds narrow leads in several recent polls over Democrat Josh Turek in the race to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. A co/efficient poll from October 19 had Hinson up 48% to 45%. Trafalgar Group had her ahead 45.9% to 44.2%, Emerson showed 47% to 45%, and CNN had her up 45% to 43%. Marist and YouGov, however, have shown Turek narrowly ahead.
Ohio and Maine Still Up for Grabs
Ohio remains a tight fight. Rasmussen Reports found Republican Sen. Jon Husted leading former Sen. Sherrod Brown 49% to 47%, and an ActiVote survey showed Husted barely ahead, 50.2% to 49.8%. Other polling favors Brown, including a Marist survey showing him up by four, and the RealClearPolitics average has Brown ahead 47.4% to 44.6%.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins trails Democrat Troy Jackson 49% to 47% in recent polls from InsiderAdvantage, Suffolk University and Rasmussen. The average has Jackson up by just 1.6 points, and Collins has beaten her polls before.
The math explains why every one of these races matters. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control, so a Republican hold in Texas, Kansas, Iowa or Ohio would make their path much harder, while a GOP pickup in Michigan would make it close to impossible.
Could Republicans Gain Seats?
Fox News anchor Bret Baier noted Sunday that if Republicans beat their polling averages by margins similar to past polling misses, the party could finish with a 52-48 majority.
Polls are snapshots, not results, and many of these leads are within the margin of error. But the trend gives Republicans reason for optimism. The only poll that counts is the one on Tuesday.