Stefanik Closing Polling Gap With Hochel In NY Governor’s Race

A new survey suggests that New York’s 2026 gubernatorial contest could become far more competitive than Democrats expected, with Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) trailing incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) by just 3 points in a hypothetical matchup.

The poll, conducted by independent research firm J.L. Partners, sampled 500 likely New York voters and found Hochul leading Stefanik 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided, The Hill reported.

The findings indicate Stefanik holds a 37% favorable rating among voters, compared to 32% unfavorable, a solid position for a Republican in deep-blue New York.

Stefanik, a close ally of President Donald J. Trump, officially launched her gubernatorial bid last week. First elected to Congress in 2014 to represent New York’s 21st District, she later served as House GOP conference chair from 2021 to 2025. Trump tapped her in January to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, but the nomination was withdrawn to preserve her key vote in Congress for advancing his agenda.

Hochul Faces Revolt From the Left Over Mamdani Spending Plans

While Stefanik builds early momentum, Gov. Hochul is confronting growing tension within her own party — particularly over the ambitious, high-cost agenda of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist whose $700 million plan for free city buses is already running into resistance.

According to The New York Post, Hochul cast fresh doubt on the proposal during the SOMOS political retreat in Puerto Rico, noting her administration has already pumped significant funds into the city’s financially strained MTA.

Meanwhile, Mamdani publicly maintained his optimism.
“I continue to be excited at the work of making the slowest buses in America fast and free,” Mamdani said Monday. “And I appreciate the governor’s continued partnership in delivering on that agenda of affordability.”

But Hochul’s comments were the latest sign of a widening rift between the moderate governor and the far-left mayor-elect she endorsed just two months earlier. Hochul embraced Mamdani’s energy on the campaign trail but has shown far less enthusiasm for financing his sweeping welfare-state proposals.

She has already rejected several of his marquee ideas, including a plan to hike taxes on wealthy New Yorkers to bankroll $10 billion in new government benefits, ranging from free childcare to fareless transit.

That skepticism sets up a major hurdle for Mamdani, whose big-ticket plans depend heavily on Albany backing. State legislative leaders — Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie and Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins — appear more receptive, leaving Hochul increasingly isolated from the party’s activist base.

Progressives have recently confronted Hochul at public events, chanting “Tax the rich” — leading to a sharp pushback from the governor.
“The more you push me, the more I’m not going to do what you want,” she warned the SOMOS crowd.

Even so, Hochul signaled openness to at least one of Mamdani’s priorities.
She acknowledged a potential long-term path toward expanding free child care, though she stressed the staggering cost.
“We’ll be on a path to get there, because I’m committed to this as ‘mom governor’ — I get it,” Hochul said.
But implementing it statewide, she added, would cost “about $15 billion — the entire amount of my reserves.”

Hochul’s tempered approach reflects the political balancing act ahead of her expected 2026 re-election bid — squeezed between energized progressives demanding massive new spending and a rising Republican challenger now polling within the margin of error.

With Stefanik already narrowing the gap and Hochul battling her own ideological flank, New York’s gubernatorial race is shaping up to be the most competitive in over a decade.