Susan Collins Gets New Warning Signs in Maine Poll

Republican Sen. Susan Collins is heading into 2026 with warning signs flashing, as a new poll suggests the longtime Maine incumbent begins her reelection bid trailing a generic Democrat — a troubling position in a state President Kamala Harris carried last November.

Collins, long viewed as the chamber’s most centrist Republican, has a history of outperforming national trends and surviving difficult cycles for the GOP. But with Maine drifting leftward in federal races, both parties are preparing for one of the most expensive Senate fights of the midterms.

A new Cygnal survey, first reported by Politico, shows Collins behind an unnamed Democratic challenger. According to the poll, 41% of respondents back Collins, while 49% say they would support a Democrat. The report notes that she “starts behind but beats expectations,” a nod to her reputation for overperforming in tight contests.

The survey also suggested that Collins could narrow the gap if she backs an extension of the Affordable Care Act’s expanded subsidies, which Democrats are desperate to keep alive and Republicans have opposed for years.

“Collins consistently overperforms the GOP baseline, especially among college-educated women (+8 net), voters over 55 (+6), and swing voters (+10),” the polling memo reads.

The ACA’s pandemic-era subsidy expansions — a central part of Barack Obama’s legacy program — were engineered to temporarily widen eligibility for low-income insurance coverage. Without congressional action, the subsidies are expected to expire at the end of the year. As part of negotiations with moderate Senate Democrats to reopen the government earlier this fall, GOP leaders agreed to hold a vote on the tax credit.

The Cygnal poll found that if Collins supports extending the subsidies, she increases her standing to 43%, with the Democrat at 45%. While still trailing, the gap tightens significantly.

CBS News reported that Collins is open to the extension but wants “reform.”

The survey did not test Democratic primary candidates directly. Gov. Janet Mills and state lawmaker Andrew Platner are locked in a contentious race for the nomination. Collins has not formally launched her 2026 campaign, though she has stated she intends to run.

Recent polling has shown a divided landscape. A Maine People’s Resource Center survey last month found Collins leading Mills 46% to 42%, but trailing Platner 45% to 41%. The poll surveyed 783 voters between October 26 and 29 and carries a 3.5-point margin of error.

Harris defeated President Donald Trump in Maine last year by roughly seven points — a slightly narrower margin than Joe Biden’s nine-point win in 2020. Maine’s leftward drift has not been as dramatic as other states, but the trend remains a challenge for Republicans running statewide.

The Cygnal report underscores the dynamics clearly: “Swing voters (+6 net) and a Moderates segment (16% of the electorate)—moderate, female, older, and less college-educated—hold the key to victory. If Collins supports extension, she outperforms Trump’s 2024 ballot share with this Moderate segment by 16 points. If she opposes extension, her support falls to 15 points below Trump’s share.”

Gov. Mills has already begun attacking Collins on the issue. In a November 14 post on X, Mills wrote: “Let me make something very clear—Susan Collins is contributing to skyrocketing health care costs for families across Maine. It’s reckless and just plain wrong. We will vote her out in 2026.”

Election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, currently rate the race as a pure toss-up — a rare and perilous position for a sitting Republican senator in a Democratic-leaning state.