Texas Republicans Bank a 627,000-Ballot Early Vote Edge as Paxton Faces Talarico
Texas Republicans head into Election Day with a sizable cushion, according to a new estimate of the state's final early voting numbers.
An analysis from Election Data Guy reports 7,716,859 early and mail ballots cast in Texas. The analyst's model assigns 4,116,419 of them to Republicans and 3,488,783 to Democrats, with another 111,657 classified separately.
That adds up to a modeled Republican advantage of 627,636 ballots. The estimate puts the overall split at about 53% Republican to 45% Democratic, with a projected range of 50% to 56% for Republicans and 41% to 47% for Democrats. It also projects final turnout at around 54%.
A Growing Lead, With a Catch
The Republican cushion has grown over the past week. The modeled lead stood at 474,470 on October 25 and rose by about 153,000 ballots by November 1.
There are caveats. Texas voters do not register by party, so the partisan breakdown is a model, not an official count. The analyst also noted that in the final batch of about 306,000 votes added since Saturday, modeled Democratic ballots outpaced Republican ones, trimming the GOP lead by roughly 28,000. The Republican share is also softer than the party's 56% showing in 2024.
Paxton vs. Talarico
The Senate race features Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for the seat held by John Cornyn. Paxton beat Cornyn for the GOP nomination with President Trump's endorsement.
History favors Republicans. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, and President Trump carried the state comfortably in 2024. But Democrats have poured energy into this race, and Talarico's campaign has raised serious money on its own, reporting $64 million from July through September.
The Money Behind the Race
Outside spending has been enormous. Reuters reported that groups supporting Paxton spent about $239 million, compared with roughly $45 million from major Democratic-aligned groups. Texas PAC alone accounted for nearly $149 million. The group was set up by the Senate Leadership Fund, which received $158 million from Elon Musk, according to federal filings described by Reuters.
Nationally, President Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., began September with nearly $416 million. It spent nearly $277 million over six weeks, largely through transfers, including $200 million to No Going Back PAC and $25 million to Safety and Affordability PAC. It still had more than $164 million on October 14. Big donors include casino developer Steve Wynn, who gave $8 million in September, and Stephen Schwarzman and Diane Hendricks, who gave $5 million each.
President Trump has said his political network plans to spend more than $400 million before Election Day on ads, voter contact and rallies, with major focus on the Senate races in Texas, Michigan and Ohio.
Why Texas Matters Nationally
The stakes reach well beyond the Lone Star State. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four to take over. Losing Texas would blow a hole in the GOP's map.
Money and early leads do not guarantee anything, and late advertising often costs far more than ads bought early. For Texas conservatives, the early numbers are encouraging, but the job is not finished until the polls close on Tuesday.