The Trump Effect: Reports Say Iran’s Supreme Leader Is Preparing an Escape Plan After Maduro’s Capture

Call it the Trump Effect — or, for those still clinging to old talking points, call it the Maduro Effect. Labels aside, the consequences are becoming difficult to ignore.

According to a report published Sunday by The Times of London, the shockwaves from the capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro are already being felt far beyond Caracas. Just one day after Maduro was seized in a dramatic early-morning operation, intelligence sources told The Times that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has activated contingency plans to flee the country if unrest spirals further out of control.

Khamenei, now 86, reportedly fears that the ongoing protests against Iran’s ruling clerical regime — which erupted again in late December — could escalate into a full-scale collapse of authority. While mass demonstrations are hardly new in Iran, the current moment appears fundamentally different.

Iran has experienced major uprisings repeatedly under Khamenei’s rule — in 1999, 2009, 2017, 2019, and 2022. Each time, the regime relied on brute force, repression, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to maintain control. This time, however, the regime’s vulnerabilities are fully exposed.

First, Iran’s long-cultivated image as a regional military powerhouse was badly shattered during the recent 12-Day War, when Israeli and U.S. forces reportedly operated inside Iranian airspace with little resistance, inflicting significant damage on military and nuclear infrastructure.

Second, President Donald J. Trump — now serving his second term as President of the United States — has openly signaled American support for the Iranian people. Writing on Truth Social, Trump warned that “[i]f Iran [shoots] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue.”

Third, the message sent by Maduro’s capture could not be clearer to authoritarian regimes watching closely.

According to The Times, Khamenei has already prepared a “Plan B” should Iran’s security forces falter.

“Khamenei, 86, plans to escape Tehran with a close circle of up to 20 aides and family, should he see that the army and security called on to quell the unrest are deserting, defecting or failing to follow orders.”

“The ‘plan B’ is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba,” an intelligence source told The Times.

Beni Sabti, a former Israeli intelligence official who fled Iran years after the Islamic Revolution, told The Times that Moscow would likely be Khamenei’s destination, explaining that “there is no other place for him.”

The plan would reportedly only be activated if signs emerged that Iran’s internal security forces were no longer willing to enforce the regime’s orders — a red line authoritarian systems rarely survive crossing. While Khamenei maintains tight control over his inner circle, recent developments suggest that control is weakening.

Notably, Iran’s morality police have reportedly eased enforcement in recent weeks, an apparent attempt to stabilize the government of President Masoud Pezeshkian, who assumed office following the 2024 helicopter crash that killed hardline predecessor Ebrahim Raisi. Those concessions, however, have done little to calm public anger.

Sources say the regime’s leadership has already begun “gathering assets, properties abroad and cash to facilitate their safe passage,” a familiar tactic among elites who loudly denounce the West while quietly benefiting from it.

That hypocrisy is compounded by the reality that many senior Iranian officials have family members living in Western countries — including the United States. As one observer wryly put it, the real chant of Iran’s ruling class might be: “Death to America — but not before we get our kids out!”

Even Khamenei’s own social media activity suggests growing anxiety in Tehran following Maduro’s downfall.

Venezuela attempted to stall, negotiate, and buy time — and paid the price. Iran’s leadership appears to understand that lesson all too well.

Whether Khamenei ultimately flees to Moscow or faces the consequences at home remains to be seen. Either outcome, many Iranians would argue, would mark progress after decades of repression.