Troy Jackson Edges Susan Collins in Maine Poll, but Senior Swing Voters Break Sharply for the Republican

A new Maine poll gives Democrat Troy Jackson a narrow lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, while revealing a significant counterpoint: Collins holds a commanding advantage among older voters who split their support across party lines.

The AARP survey, released Friday, puts Jackson ahead 50 percent to 47 percent. But with a 3.1-point margin of error, that three-point gap does not establish a clear leader. AARP surveyed 982 likely voters from September 20 through September 22, according to the Bangor Daily News.

Just three percent of respondents were undecided—the smallest share across AARP’s seven battleground Senate surveys. With few voters still weighing their options, turnout and whether voters stick with their current choices could prove decisive.

Jackson, a former Maine Senate president from Allagash, leads Collins by 25 points among voters under 50. His advantage grows to 47 points among those ages 18 to 34.

Collins leads by 12 points among voters ages 50 to 64 and by seven points among voters 65 and older. That senior advantage was the narrowest Republican lead among older voters in AARP’s battleground surveys. Maine seniors favored Democrats for Congress by six points, suggesting Collins is winning some support across party lines.

Older voters also reported greater motivation to vote: 89 percent of seniors said their motivation was at the highest level, compared with 69 percent of voters ages 18 to 34. If younger voters turn out at a lower rate, the difference could tighten the race. Republican pollster Bob Ward, who worked on the AARP surveys, cautioned against assuming younger voters will participate.

The sharpest contrast appears among voters age 50 and older who split their choices across the Senate, governor, and congressional questions. Collins leads that group 70 percent to 17 percent. These voters account for 20 percent of older respondents, and Collins’ 53-point margin was the strongest showing for any Senate candidate in the seven AARP surveys. The next closest Republican lead among comparable swing voters was 33 points in Michigan.

Collins was also the only candidate across those surveys with a favorable overall rating among older swing voters. Her rating in that group was 59 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable. Jackson’s was 23 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable.

Collins also draws support from 11 percent of Democrats—the highest crossover support for a Republican in AARP’s survey series. Democrats lead Maine’s generic congressional ballot by 10 points, but Collins is running seven points ahead of her party’s standing on that measure. The personal advantage gives her a stronger position than the broader partisan numbers suggest, though it has not eliminated Jackson’s narrow lead.

The poll found Democrats leading or tied in all seven battleground Senate races surveyed by AARP, including contests in Republican-leaning Texas and Ohio. That points to a difficult environment for GOP candidates. In Maine, President Donald Trump’s approval stood at 37 percent, with 61 percent disapproving—the weakest showing among the seven states, the Bangor Daily News reported.

Collins’ statewide image remains a vulnerability. Voters rated her 44 percent favorable and 53 percent unfavorable. Jackson’s ratings were 47 percent favorable and 44 percent unfavorable.

There is reason to be cautious about treating one poll as a verdict. Collins trailed in public polling in 2020 before winning reelection by nearly nine points, The Bangor Daily News reported. That result does not guarantee another polling miss, but it offers a reminder that the race will be decided by voters who show up in November.