Trump Ally Takes Lead In Battleground Senate Race: Survey
A recent poll conducted by Tony Fabrizio, a top pollster for former President Donald Trump, indicates that Tudor Dixon, a steel industry executive turned conservative media personality, holds an early lead over former Congressman Mike Rogers in Michigan’s Republican Senate primary.
According to RealClearPolitics, neither candidate has formally announced their candidacy, but both are expected to compete for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who unexpectedly declared he would not seek reelection in 2026. The decisive factor in Michigan remains Donald Trump.
Trump won the battleground state last year, defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of over 80,000 votes. On the other hand, Rogers was narrowly defeated by Democrat Elissa Slotkin in the previous election cycle. Now, the Republican Party must determine which candidate has the strongest chance to secure the open seat, as noted by RealClearPolitics.
The Fabrizio-Lee polling memo, obtained by RealClearPolitics, reveals that 57% of GOP primary voters hold favorable views of both Dixon and Rogers. However, Dixon has a slight advantage among very conservative voters, with 63% favorability compared to Rogers’ 59%. Among staunch Trump supporters in a direct matchup, Dixon leads Rogers by nine points—43% to 34%.
Both candidates are well recognized within the Republican base. Rogers, who represented Michigan in Congress for over ten years, previously chaired the House Intelligence Committee before stepping down in 2015 and later joining CNN as a commentator. Dixon, formerly an executive at Michigan Steel Inc., was the Republican nominee in Michigan’s 2022 gubernatorial race, receiving Trump’s endorsement in her challenge against Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Additionally, among voters with strong opinions on both candidates, Dixon holds a 17-point lead over Rogers, with 52% supporting her compared to Rogers’ 35%, according to RealClearPolitics.
“While the race between Dixon and Rogers appears close, the base of the GOP electorate’s support for Dixon underscores her advantages in this race,” the Fabrizio-Lee memo states. “Those furthest to the right and those who are the president’s strongest supporters clearly back Dixon and will be key to winning her the nomination.”
Trump has yet to make an endorsement, but Republicans view Michigan as a major opportunity in a Senate race with no clear Democratic frontrunner, RealClearPolitics reports.
Sen. Peters’ decision to retire dealt a significant blow to Democratic aspirations of reclaiming Senate control. Former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who moved to Michigan in 2022, was widely considered a potential contender. However, Politico recently reported that Buttigieg intends to forgo the race, leaving the door open for a possible presidential campaign.
Dixon has asserted that winning in Michigan requires securing the support of the MAGA base, as noted by RealClearPolitics.
“You need a candidate that loves Donald Trump, that is going to bear hug Donald Trump, and that’s been our problem in the past,” she said in a recent interview on “The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show,” attributing past Republican losses to candidates who “try to run parallel to him.”
Axios reported that Rogers has enlisted Chris LaCivita, Trump’s campaign co-manager, as an advisor, signaling an effort to bolster his standing with the party’s right wing and strengthen his alignment with the MAGA movement.
Meanwhile, Trump reportedly expressed interest in backing Rogers during a private meeting with Senate Republicans at Mar-a-Lago, suggesting “he might be the one.” However, he also noted that he was “talking to Michael and some of the others.”
Dixon has been a visible supporter of Trump on the campaign trail, appearing alongside notable MAGA figures such as Alina Habba, Vivek Ramaswamy, and current Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. During a rally in Grand Rapids last July, Trump commended Dixon, calling her “a friend of mine who was really brave and who ran a tough race.”