Chris Cillizza Warns Democrats Are Underestimating JD Vance For 2028

Vice President JD Vance is emerging as a dominant force in early 2028 presidential speculation, and Democrats are making a serious mistake by underestimating him, according to NewsNation political contributor Chris Cillizza.

During a Thursday live stream on his YouTube channel, Cillizza said Vance’s growing popularity represents a major warning sign for Democrats who have failed to grasp his appeal with voters.

“I’m pretty bullish on JD Vance,” Cillizza said. “I think Democrats underestimate JD Vance at their own peril, which I think they’re doing.”

Cillizza’s comments followed the release of a new Emerson College poll published Thursday showing Vance with a 46 percent favorability rating—placing him ahead of several high-profile Republicans and Democrats widely viewed as potential 2028 contenders.

Reacting to the poll on X, Cillizza said the data only reinforced his long-held view that Democrats consistently misread Vance’s political strength, a point he expanded on during the live broadcast.

Cillizza also suggested that within the Republican Party, only one figure might pose a serious challenge to Vance in a future primary.

Earlier in the stream, he said Donald Trump Jr. is the lone Republican who could potentially defeat Vance for the GOP nomination—but added that such a scenario is unlikely.

Cillizza noted that Trump Jr. and Vance are friends and that he does not expect the president’s son to run against him.

That assessment aligns with earlier analysis from CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, who said in August that Vance appeared exceptionally well positioned to secure the Republican nomination in 2028.

Enten pointed to both Vance’s commanding lead in early polling and the historical advantage enjoyed by sitting vice presidents seeking their party’s nomination.

“Look, this is early polling, but look, for the GOP nomination, it’s JD Vance at 40 percent,” Enten said. “There’s no one even close to him.”

Enten added that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was polling at just eight percent, while Donald Trump Jr. stood at seven percent.

“Keep in mind that early favorites have actually gone on to win the nomination 63 percent of the time, those who have run since 1980,” Enten said.

President Donald J. Trump himself has openly acknowledged Vance’s political future. During an August White House ceremony, Trump said the vice president was “probably favored” to carry the Make America Great Again movement into 2028.

Trump also floated the idea of a broader coalition, saying Secretary of State Marco Rubio was “also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form.”

Rubio has since echoed that sentiment. In an interview with Vanity Fair published Tuesday, Rubio said that if Vance runs, “he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”

Rubio also said on Fox News’ “My View with Lara Trump” in July that “JD Vance would be a great nominee” should he seek the presidency.

Veteran political analyst Mark Halperin has likewise suggested the Republican field may already be taking shape. Speaking on Fox News’ “Special Report” in May, Halperin predicted a powerful GOP pairing.

“I really do think JD Vance and Marco Rubio could end up being a preordained ticket in 2028, unlike we’ve ever seen before,” Halperin said.

Looking ahead to the general election, an Emerson College hypothetical poll conducted in October showed Vance holding a one-point lead over Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom—an early but telling sign of his national competitiveness.

As President Trump continues to reshape the Republican Party in his second term, momentum appears to be steadily building behind Vice President Vance as the next standard-bearer of the America First movement.