Georgia Tops 2.5 Million Early Votes as Democrats Grow Their Modeled Lead and the GOP Leans on Its Cash Edge
Georgia voters are turning out in huge numbers days before the midterms, and the latest early voting model shows why neither party can relax in one of the most closely watched states on the map.
Election analyst E_DataGuy reported Friday that the state has now passed two and a half million ballots cast.
"Georgia has now banked 2,513,648 early votes, with Democrats holding a modelled 89,293 firewall — up from 56,316 on yesterday's card," the analyst wrote.
That is a day-over-day gain for Democrats, and the analyst's model puts their share ahead of where it stood in the last two cycles.
"The modelled split sits around 51.4% D / 47.8% R — firmer for Democrats than their 2024 share (49.1%) or 2022 (50.6%)," the analyst added.
There is an important caveat. Georgia has no party registration, so those shares are estimates rather than a count of how anyone voted.
"Day-over-day added about 205k votes, ~97% of them in-person. Party shares are modelled (no party registration) — official vote counts by party aren't known until election day," the analyst continued.
For Republicans, the takeaway is that the race is still live. The modeled gap is a few percentage points in a state with an open path for either side, and Georgia's in-person surge leaves plenty of room for the final days to change the picture.
Republicans also go into the closing days with serious money behind them. Federal records show MAGA Inc., the outside committee that backs President Trump's agenda, still held about $164.3 million through October 14. The Associated Press reported that the group had put out nearly $277 million since September began, including $200 million for No Going Back PAC and $25 million for Safety & Affordability PAC, and that the president wants his operation to spend more than $400 million by Election Day.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, meanwhile, announced $50 million raised in the third quarter and entered October with $61 million on hand. Its $28.5 million September haul included a $14 million transfer from the Republican National Committee.
Karoline Leavitt, the former White House press secretary, told Fox News Digital in New Hampshire that President Trump is undeterred by the midterm odds.
"The president is defiant, and he always is optimistic," Leavitt said.
She said Trump "totally understands that history is not on the Republican side right now if you just frankly look at the history books, but that's not stopping him from going out and barnstorming the country."
Leavitt framed the election as a choice between "commonsense Republican conservative candidates who believe in cutting taxes, securing the border, putting American citizens over illegal aliens" and what she called "radical extreme liberal crazy candidates."
"We have a huge cash advantage across the country," she said. "We are making sure voters understand again what's at stake in this election and why it's so important that we win."