Georgia's Early Vote Tops 2.8 Million as Collins Makes Final Push to Unseat Ossoff
Georgia's Senate showdown is coming down to the wire, and the final early voting numbers show why neither party can relax heading into Tuesday.
A November 1 estimate from analyst Election Data Guy puts Georgia's early and mail ballots at 2,826,145. Using a partisan model, the analysis assigns 1,468,391 of those ballots to Democrats, 1,335,945 to Republicans and 21,809 to other voters.
That works out to a modeled Democratic edge of 132,446 ballots, which the analyst calls an early-vote "firewall." The model puts the split at about 52% Democratic and 47% Republican, with ranges of 48% to 54% for Democrats and 44% to 50% for Republicans.
Why the Numbers Need Context
There is a big caveat. Georgia voters do not register by party, so every partisan figure is an estimate based on assumptions and past voting behavior. As the analyst put it, official vote counts by party are not known until Election Day.
Early returns also slowed to a trickle over the weekend, with only about 2,900 ballots added since Saturday. Historically, Republican voters have been more likely to show up in person on Election Day, which means the GOP can still close the gap through strong turnout, persuasion and voters who skipped early voting.
The Senate race pits Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff against Republican Rep. Mike Collins, one of the most closely watched contests in the country. Collins is trying to flip the seat as Republicans defend a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber.
Republicans Hold a Money Edge
Whatever the early vote shows, Republicans head into Election Day with a serious financial advantage. Federal filings show the Republican National Committee raised about $341.5 million this cycle through October 14 and still had about $76.2 million in cash.
The National Republican Congressional Committee entered October with about $61.3 million on hand after raising roughly $50 million in the third quarter. Reuters reported about $137 million in coordinated Republican spending from July through September, compared with $55 million for Democrats. GOP committees held about $187 million at the end of September, versus roughly $100 million for Democratic committees.
Trump-aligned groups have also spent heavily. The Associated Press reported nearly $277 million spent since early September backing Republican candidates. MAGA Inc. moved $200 million to No Going Back PAC and $25 million to Safety and Affordability PAC, and still had more than $164 million as of October 14.
'The President Is Defiant'
Karoline Leavitt said President Trump is determined to beat the odds that usually work against the party in the White House during a midterm.
"The president is defiant, and he always is optimistic," Leavitt told Fox News Digital. She said Trump "totally understands that history is not on the Republican side right now," but that it is not stopping him from "barnstorming the country."
"He's being frank and honest with his voters that 'I know you don't turn out in midterm cycles, but we need you to this time,'" she said. Leavitt framed the race as a contrast between Republicans "who believe in cutting taxes, securing the border, putting American citizens over illegal aliens" and some of "the most radical Democrats we've ever seen."
In Georgia, the message to conservatives is clear. The early numbers are an estimate, not a result. If Republicans want to win this seat, they have to show up on Tuesday.