Jasmine Crockett’s Senate Campaign in Shambles After Devastating New Poll
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett is facing mounting political headwinds following a major Supreme Court ruling that allowed Texas’ newly drawn congressional map to stand ahead of the 2026 midterm elections—a decision that appears to have derailed her House ambitions and complicated her abrupt pivot to a U.S. Senate run.
After abandoning plans to seek a different House seat, Crockett launched a late bid for the Democratic Senate nomination. But a newly released poll suggests that move has not resonated with primary voters.
According to an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday, State Rep. James Talarico has taken a commanding lead in the Democratic Senate primary, outpacing Crockett by nine points. Among likely Democratic voters, 47 percent said they support Talarico, compared to 38 percent backing Crockett. Another 15 percent remain undecided, with less than two months until the March primary.
The winner will face Sen. John Cornyn in the general election—assuming Cornyn survives a competitive Republican primary of his own.
Talarico has emerged as a well-funded and broadly appealing candidate, having raised more than $13 million since entering the race in September. The poll shows him winning nearly six in ten white and Hispanic Democratic voters, while Crockett dominates among Black Democrats, capturing 80 percent support within that demographic.
Gender also proved decisive. Men favored Talarico by 22 points, while women were evenly split between the two candidates, according to Emerson Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball.
A former middle school teacher turned progressive activist legislator, Talarico gained national attention in 2024 when he joined fellow Texas Democrats in fleeing the state to block a Republican-backed redistricting bill. His campaign now centers on education reform, housing affordability, and shifting power away from Washington bureaucrats and back to local school districts.
Crockett, by contrast, is a first-term congresswoman best known for her confrontational style and viral clashes on Capitol Hill. Her surprise Senate entry in late December reshaped the race, prompting former Rep. Colin Allred—the Democrats’ 2024 Senate nominee—to exit the contest and instead seek a return to the House.
Political analysts say the primary has become a test of tone and temperament inside the Texas Democratic Party: Talarico presenting himself as a coalition-builder, while Crockett appeals to the party’s activist left.
On the Republican side, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton continues to pressure Sen. Cornyn, leading him 27 percent to 26 percent among likely GOP primary voters. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) trails with 16 percent, while 29 percent remain undecided.
“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided,” Kimball said. “With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton now appears likely in May.”
General election matchups show competitive but uphill battles for Democrats. Paxton is tied with both Talarico and Crockett at 46 percent, while Cornyn leads Talarico 47–44 and Crockett 48–43.
Despite the tight margins, national analysts remain skeptical. The Cook Political Report continues to rate the race “Likely Republican,” reflecting Texas’ long-standing GOP advantage.
Still, Democrats argue demographic shifts and urban growth give them hope. Talarico’s campaign seized on the poll, calling it “proof that Texans are ready for a new generation of leadership focused on working families instead of Washington insiders.”
Crockett, meanwhile, has blamed the Supreme Court’s redistricting decision for jeopardizing her political future.
“While today’s decision from the Supreme Court is disappointing, it’s not shocking coming from a MAGA-influenced court. Here’s the bottom line: Texans are now being told to vote under maps that a panel of three federal judges—right here in Texas—said were drawn to weaken the voices of Black, Latino, and minority communities,” she said. “Those findings still stand. The Supreme Court simply pressed pause, allowing these maps to be used for the 2026 election cycle while the case continues.”
“Let’s be clear: the Supreme Court did not say these maps are fair. They did not say these maps are constitutional. They did not undo what the lower court found,” she continued. “All they did was allow maps that the lower court flagged as discriminatory to stay in place for now. To every politician celebrating this decision, let me offer a word of caution: Don’t get too comfortable.”
For now, however, James Talarico appears quite comfortable, as Democratic voters increasingly signal they are looking past Crockett’s firebrand politics toward a different kind of standard-bearer.