Republicans Make Massive Gains In Generic Congressional Ballot
Early voting is underway in most states, and a new Rasmussen Reports survey offers Republicans a more encouraging snapshot of the congressional race: Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot has narrowed sharply in the poll’s latest readings.
Among likely voters, 47% said they would support a Democratic congressional candidate and 44% a Republican, leaving Democrats with a three-point advantage. That is down from an eight-point lead in Rasmussen’s earlier survey and a five-point lead in its subsequent poll.
Across those three surveys, Republican support rose from 41% to 44%, while Democratic support slipped from 49% to 47%. The trend marks a sustained narrowing in Rasmussen’s polling series, though Democrats remain ahead nationally and other polling organizations have reported larger leads.
The numbers come as Republicans work to defend their narrow House majority. A Democratic takeover would put House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in charge of the chamber’s agenda, shift committee chairmanships and give Democrats greater power to investigate Trump administration policies. It would also complicate President Donald Trump’s legislative priorities.
Rasmussen interviewed 1,794 likely voters by telephone and online on September 24 and September 27–30. The poll reported a margin of error of approximately two percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Four percent chose another candidate and another 4% were undecided.
The survey found Republicans with a lead among several groups. Hispanic voters favored GOP candidates 50% to 42%, while white voters backed Republicans 48% to 44%. Among voters classified as other minorities, Republicans led 45% to 31%. Black voters remained strongly Democratic, favoring Democrats 70% to 16%.
Older voters also leaned Republican: those 65 and over supported GOP candidates 53% to 43%. Voters under 30 favored Democrats 54% to 32%, a 22-point advantage.
The poll showed a divide by gender, with women favoring Democrats 48% to 42% and men backing Republicans 47% to 45%. Democrats also led among independents, 42% to 33%. Twelve percent of independents preferred a third-party candidate and 13% were undecided, leaving a sizable share of that group uncommitted.
Party voters largely supported their own candidates. Republicans backed GOP nominees 89% to 87% among Democrats—a two-point edge in party loyalty for Republicans.
Rasmussen’s comparison with the 2024 election adds context. Before that vote, Republicans led the generic ballot 48% to 45% and went on to win a narrow House majority. The current three-point Democratic lead represents a six-point swing from that earlier Republican advantage.
For Republicans, the poll points to potential strengths among older and Hispanic voters, while Democrats retain advantages among younger voters, Black voters, women and independents. The survey is one measure of the national mood, and its results do not determine how individual House races will break.
Still, if the narrowing continues, Republicans could improve their position in closely contested districts as the midterms approach.