Speculation Swirls Conservative SCOTUS Justice May Retire

Speculation is mounting in Washington legal circles over whether Samuel Alito may step down from the U.S. Supreme Court later this year — a move that would give President Donald J. Trump the opportunity to nominate another justice during his second term.

Appointed in 2006 by George W. Bush, Alito, 75, is currently the second-longest-serving member of the Court. Over nearly two decades, he has played a central role in shaping a more originalist and constitutionally grounded direction for the judiciary, particularly in cases involving administrative overreach and separation of powers.

“That is usually a very good milestone on which to retire,” Melissa Murray, a law professor at New York University, said on the latest episode of the podcast Strict Scrutiny that she co-hosts, USA Today reported.

Although Alito has made no public announcement, speculation intensified following reports that observers are closely watching the timing of his plans. Some analysts suggest that a mid-2026 retirement could allow Senate Republicans to confirm a successor before November’s elections — assuming the GOP maintains control of the chamber.

Others note that Senate Republicans may prefer to avoid confirmation hearings deep into an election season. According to Strict Scrutiny co-host Kate Shaw, Alito could announce in the coming weeks that he intends to step down at the conclusion of the current term.

Fueling further speculation is the fact that Alito has a book scheduled for release in October, just as the Court begins its new term. Steve Vladeck, a law professor at Georgetown University who writes about the high court on Substack, called the publication date “a pretty big tell since one can’t exactly go on a book tour during the first argument session of the term.”

In recent years, Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson and Amy Coney Barrett released their books in September, allowing time for promotional efforts before the Court returned to session.

Still, legal commentator David Lat has floated the opposite theory — that the October release date could signal Alito intends to remain on the bench.

“Book buyers are much more interested in what a current justice has to say, as opposed to a retired one,” Lat wrote on Substack. “I could see Justice Alito not wanting to step down until well after publication.”

Washington consultant Bruce Mehlman has also weighed in, noting that every current justice is younger than the recent average retirement age of 79. Alito turns 76 in April, suggesting he may feel no urgency to leave the Court.

President Trump has previously voiced strong support for both Alito and fellow conservative stalwart Clarence Thomas, telling reporters he hopes they remain on the bench because he considers them “fantastic,” even as speculation about possible retirements continues to swirl.

The Supreme Court’s 2025–26 term is already packed with major cases involving federal agency authority, immigration policy, and constitutional interpretation — issues central to President Trump’s America First agenda and ongoing efforts to rein in bureaucratic power.

Any shift in the Court’s composition could carry profound implications for how those disputes — and future constitutional questions — are resolved.

Since the 1950s, only three presidents — Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan — have appointed more Supreme Court justices than President Trump, who has already named three: Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.

Should Alito choose to retire, President Trump would have the opportunity to appoint a younger constitutional conservative, potentially cementing the Court’s originalist majority for a generation.

For now, however, Alito has given no indication that he plans to step down, and Court officials have announced no changes. Still, in an era when the Supreme Court remains central to battles over executive authority, federal power, and the meaning of the Constitution itself, even whispers of a vacancy are enough to ignite fierce debate in Washington.