Stunning Poll Shows Virginia GOP’s Winsome Earle-Sears Surging in Governor’s Race Weeks Before Election
Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears has stunned the political world in Virginia’s closely watched gubernatorial contest, closing the gap with Democrat Abigail Spanberger to within just three points — a dramatic shift that has Democrats on edge less than a month before Election Day.
According to a new A2 Insights survey conducted Sept. 26–28 among 771 likely voters, Spanberger leads narrowly with 47.7 percent, while Earle-Sears, the state’s current lieutenant governor, has surged to 44.6 percent support. Another 6.4 percent of voters remain undecided — more than enough to swing the outcome either way.
Just two weeks ago, a Wason Center for Civic Leadership poll painted a very different picture, showing Spanberger with a 12-point lead at 52 percent to 40 percent. The latest data now marks an unmistakable momentum shift toward the Republican ticket, signaling that Virginia’s Democrats may be losing their once-comfortable advantage.
The dramatic rise of Earle-Sears — a Marine veteran, small-business owner, and proud conservative — comes as the GOP intensifies its message around public safety, parental rights, and economic recovery. Her campaign has focused on defending Virginia families from what she calls “the failed experiments of the Biden-Spanberger agenda.”
National Pattern Emerging
The A2 Insights poll is part of a broader national trend favoring Republican candidates in key state races. In New Jersey, a new Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll shows Republican Jack Ciattarelli tied with Democrat Mikie Sherrill at 43 percent each — a remarkable development in a state long considered safely blue.
Democrats are hoping to reclaim Virginia while holding New Jersey for a third consecutive cycle, but the numbers suggest both races are now competitive. President Donald J. Trump, whose popularity among working-class and suburban voters continues to surge, has already celebrated the polling shift as evidence of a Republican comeback.
The President reacted to the New Jersey results with characteristic enthusiasm on Truth Social, writing:
“Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey. Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today.”
He continued:
“He will be a GREAT Governor, and Sherrill wants Open Borders (again!), men playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender for everyone, and all of the things that almost DESTROYED America. She is a big supporter of the perhaps future Communist Mayor of New York City! We need Jack in New Jersey!!! President DJT.”
With both Virginia and New Jersey holding their gubernatorial elections on Nov. 4, the late-breaking momentum on the Republican side could reshape the political map — and send a powerful message heading into 2026.