Trump Effect: Deep Blue New Jersey Now Trending Red
President Donald Trump is shaking the political foundations of New Jersey—a state long considered a Democratic stronghold—with new polling suggesting a dramatic realignment in voter sentiment.
A poll released Thursday by Emerson College/Pix 11/The Hill found President Trump’s approval rating in the Garden State now matches that of Democrat Governor Phil Murphy, signaling a profound political shift in a state that handed Hillary Clinton a double-digit victory in 2016.
According to the survey, Trump and Murphy are now tied with a 47 percent approval and disapproval rating. In contrast, Murphy’s own standing has slipped, with only 40 percent approving of his leadership and 45 percent disapproving. Another 15 percent said they had no opinion on the governor.
It’s a major change from just a few years ago. Trump, who lost the state by 14 points in 2016, narrowed the margin significantly in the 2024 election, losing to Vice President Kamala Harris by only 5.9 percentage points.
“Trump’s rise in New Jersey is more than a polling quirk—it is a symptom of the deeper disillusionment of a forgotten electorate. Compared to his dismal 38% approval in 2020, Trump has gained nearly 18 net points in five years,” said Jason Corley, a pollster for Quantus Insights.
“The self-anointed progressives who run Trenton and dominate Newark, Camden, and Paterson may have the numbers on paper, but they are losing the pulse of the people,” he added.
According to Corley, Trump’s gains in the state are historic. In 2024, Harris’s narrow win came with a 10.1-point swing toward Republicans compared to 2020—the second-largest shift in the nation after New York.
“Trump flipped counties long assumed to be safe for Democrats: Gloucester, Passaic, Atlantic, Cumberland, and even Morris. This wasn’t a surge so much as a shift—a groundswell building under the feet of a party too preoccupied with cultural crusades and regulatory overreach to see the ground cracking beneath them,” Corley noted.
Grassroots efforts have played a pivotal role in this transformation. Conservative activist Scott Presler has worked tirelessly to register voters in New Jersey—a key factor behind the changing numbers.
“Since 2020, Republicans have added roughly 152,000 voters in New Jersey—a 9.8% increase. Democrats grew more slowly, up 129,000, or 5.2%. Unaffiliated voter registration declined slightly, but independents still make up over a third of the electorate,” Corley said. “And in a state with semi-closed primaries and a vanishing county line system, these independents may finally become the kingmakers.”
Looking ahead, the 2025 gubernatorial election could mark a turning point for the GOP in the state. New Jersey has not elected a Republican governor since Chris Christie left office in 2018, but the winds may be shifting.
“The 2021 gubernatorial race was a canary in the coal mine. Murphy, who cruised to a 14-point victory in 2017, barely hung on with 3.2% in 2021 against Republican Jack Ciattarelli. It was a political tremor that national media largely ignored. Now, with the 2025 gubernatorial race looming, the GOP smells opportunity,” said Corley.
“Ciattarelli may run again. If he does, he won’t be alone. The abolition of the party-line system could open the field to Trump-aligned outsiders, independents, or populist insurgents. The state’s political elite may soon find themselves facing challengers they can neither predict nor control,” he added.
Still, Corley warned Republicans against complacency, noting that Democrats still maintain a nearly 900,000 voter registration advantage.
“But New Jersey is no longer a lock. It’s a fight. And in a nation increasingly fractured along cultural, economic, and geographic lines, the Garden State may soon find itself less a Democratic fortress than a battlefield,” he said.
“If the GOP can maintain momentum, speak clearly to working families, and offer candidates who challenge not just the left, but the stale remnants of its own establishment, then New Jersey may not just shift red. It may do so with thunder,” Corley concluded.